After a long awards season, winners seem to be a foregone conclusion when it's time for the granddaddy of them all, the Oscars.

But just a minute -- momentum shifts and prognosticators fill pages with talk of upsets. In a year when there are a few certain slam dunks -- the splendid Daniel Day-Lewis as "Lincoln," gut-wrenching "Amour" as Best Foreign Film and Anne Hathaway as Best Supporting Actress for "Les Miserables" -- the fun is predicting what might happen when the envelopes are opened tonight.

At December's end, the "Argo" juggernaut wasn't predicted. Now that the film on the incredulous true-life rescue tale of hostages in Iran has won at every Guild event -- Writers, Directors, Producers and Screen Actors -- how can it not win Best Picture?

Here are my highly subjective guesses for the Academy Awards (7:30 tonight on KDNL, Channel 30). I expect a tech sweep for 'Life of Pi," a visually stunning and exquisitely beautiful film. Many of the categories are up for grabs. Fasten your seatbelts -- let's hope for a bumpy night! And pass the popcorn.

BEST PICTURE

Will Win: "Argo"

Should Win: "Zero Dark Thirty"

Possible upset: "Lincoln"

Reality-based dramas are all the rage this year. The thoughtful "Lincoln" received the most nominations, but by now, it hasn't mustered enough support. And that's a shame. It's a relevant history lesson. Like "Argo," "Zero Dark Thirty" takes a real frantic situation and gives it an edge-of-your-seat retelling. Bottom-line, Hollywood loves movies about Hollywood. And this one is a doozy.

The nominees: "Amour," Argo," "Beasts of the Southern Wild," "Les Miserables," "Life of Pi," "Lincoln," "The Silver Linings Playbook" and "Zero Dark Thirty."

BEST ACTOR

Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis "Lincoln"

Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis

Possible Upset: Not a chance

When someone, already hailed as his generation's finest, wins every award in pre-sesaon. how can you bet against him? Daniel Day-Lewis will win his third Best Actor Oscar, a first for any actor. He won't be denied.

BEST ACTRESS

Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence "Silver Linings Playbook"

Should Win: Jessica Chastain "Zero Dark Thirty"

Possible Upset: Emmanuelle Riva "Amour"

In January, I picked Jessica Chastain, for her wide-ranging role and its demands. Then Jennifer Lawrence, backed by the gazillion promotional dollars of The Weinstein Co., seemed to be the frontrunner. Look for Emmanuelle Riva to be part of the spoiler. Besides, she is going to be 86 on the day of the Oscars!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will Win: Tommy Lee Jones "Lincoln"

Should Win: Christoph Waltz "Django Unchained"

Possible Upset: Robert De Niro "Silver LInens Playbook"

This is indeed a toss-up. De Niro has been nominated only twice since his Best Actor Oscar for "Raging Bull" 32 years ago. Tommy Lee Jones has won it before, with "The Fugitive." And Christoph Waltz just won two years ago.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will Win: Anne Hathaway "Les Miserables"

Should Win: Helen Hunt "The Sessions"

Possible Upset: Sally Field "Lincoln"

If Jennifer Hudson can win an Oscar with one song in a musical, so can Hathaway, when she delivers a moving "I Dreamed a Dream." She's in the film only a few minutes, but when she is -- mesmerizing.

BEST DIRECTOR

Will Win: Steven Spielberg "Lincoln"

Should Win: Ben Affleck "Argo" (not even nominated!) But among the nominees, Steven Spielberg

Possible Upset: Ang Lee "Life of Pi"

How could Ben Affleck be skipped over here? It makes no sense. Spielberg has won two -- for 'Schindler's List" and "Saving Private Ryan." Will he get enough support over Ang Lee, winner for "Brokeback Mountain" (and graduate of University of Illinois?).

BEST SONG

Will Win: "Skyfall," Adele

Should Win: "Skyfall," Adele

Possible Upset: "Suddenly" Les Miserables

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will Win: Mark Boal "Zero Dark Thirty"

Should Win: Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola "Moonrise Kingdom"

Possible Upset: Quentin Tarantino "Django Unchained"

Boal's clarity with a sprawling, difficult story should mean it wins, but "the backlash" means that "Zero Dark Thirty" won't walk away with much. Tarantino might be a certified weirdo, but he sure can write dialogue that snaps, crackles and pops.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will Win: Chris Terrio "Argo"

Should Win: Tony Kushner "Lincoln"

Possible Upset: David O. Russell "Silver Linings Playbook"

"Argo" is the yappy dog getting all the attention, and it's an outstanding work. But there is Kushner's uncanny "Lincoln," how he captured the cadences of mid-19th century, and how he presented politics as usual with a fresh eye.

BEST EDITING

Will Win: "Argo"

Should Win: "Zero Dark Thirty"

This is the award that is the bellweather for Best Picture.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will Win: Claudio Miranda "Life of Pi"

Should Win: Claudio Miranda "Life of Pi"

Possible Upset: Roger Deakins "Skyfall" (He is 0 for 9!)

BEST MUSIC SCORE

Will Win: John Williams "Lincoln"

Should Win: Mychael Danno "Life of Pi"

Possible Upset: Dario Marianelli "Anna Karenina"

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will Win: "Searching For Sugar Man"

Should Win: "How to Survive a Plague"

Possible Upset: "The Invisible War"

The premise of "Searching for Sugar Man" is such a remarkable one, that it will be tough to beat. The incredulous true story about a musician is utterly captivating. However, "How to Survive a Plague" is meticulously assembled and chronicles the AIDS epidemic with power and clarity.

BEST COSTUMES

Will Win: "Anna Karenina"

Should Win: "Mirror Mirror"

Possible Upset: "Lincoln"

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will Win: "Anna Karenina"

Should Win: "Life of Pi"

Possible Upset: "Les Miserables"

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Will Win: "Amour"

Should Win: "Amour"

Possible Upset: Not a chance