Monday, Jul. 06, 2009

Obama hopes to reset U.S., Russia ties

Both presidents to discuss cutting nuclear arsenals

MOSCOW -- When President Obama flies into Moscow today for meetings with Kremlin leadership, at the top of his agenda will be reducing the number of strategic nuclear weapons capable of destroying life on Earth. And that might be the easy part.

Obama's trip to Russia is viewed on both sides of the Atlantic as a chance to resuscitate relations between the two nations after they fell to post-Cold War lows during the presidency of George W. Bush.

In order to do so, Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev appear to be taking a more pragmatic tack than did their predecessors: concentrating first on the issues called "deliverables" in the parlance of the diplomatic community, or things that can get done, instead of getting stuck on thornier issues.

There is measured hope a combination of the financial crisis -- which humbled Russian rhetoric after both a credit crunch and lower commodity prices hit hard here -- and signals from Medvedev, however conflicted, that he's willing to pursue political reform, have created an opening for Obama to "reset" diplomatic ties.

Progress is anticipated on arms control -- expected to be a centerpiece of the agenda -- as well as on trade, counter-narcotics and support for transporting Western military supplies to the Afghan theatre.

It's a delicate task in an uncertain setting. To begin with, there is a question of whether Obama is dealing with the real leader of the country. The prime minister and former president, Vladimir Putin, is widely regarded as the ruler of Russia and the driving force behind a revival of nationalism and authoritarian rule here that's been funded by oil and gas money.

During the past year, Putin was the most visible and bellicose representative of the Russian invasion of U.S. ally Georgia, and then the dispute that led to a cut-off of Russian gas to U.S. ally Ukraine and much of Europe.

However, because of diplomatic protocol, Obama will spend more time with Medvedev, a friendlier face, than with the prime minister.

American officials have said they are aware of the complexities of Russia's "ruling tandem." Critics of the Kremlin warn Putin's deep distrust of the West could short-circuit attempts for substantial change.

In an interview with the Associated Press on Thursday, Obama acknowledged the dilemma. "I think that it's important that even as we move forward with President Medvedev, that Putin understands that the old Cold War approaches to U.S.-Russian relations is outdated, that it's time to move forward in a different direction," Obama said.

Obama and Medvedev have pledged to extend or replace the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) -- a 1991 agreement to reduce the number of long-range nuclear warheads in both countries, which is set to expire in December.

After their April meeting in London, the two leaders set an apparent benchmark by saying they would go below the levels set by a 2002 pact, known as the Moscow Treaty, which calls for no more than between 1,700 to 2,200 strategic warheads in each country by the end of 2012.

Obama officials say the president will spend much of his second day in Moscow speaking with civil society leaders, and giving what's billed as a major speech that's expected to at least touch on the question of open governance, a clear indication democracy is still on the agenda.

Before those meetings on Tuesday, though, Obama will have breakfast with a powerful Russian politician: Vladimir Putin.