This is the holiday season of our consternation. Many of us are deeply consternated. (That sounds uncomfortable.)
The source of our consternation is gas. (This is getting worse.) Specifically, it’s the price of gas.
I don’t know about you, but I grow downright giddy while pumping $2.059-a-gallon gas. Maybe it’s the fumes. But who doesn’t like paying less for anything?
And then I read, in my very own newspaper and written by one of my very own colleagues, that low gas prices might be bad for us – us being Texans, all of whom have an oil well out back, right next to our cattle and the shack where we store our firearms.
Remember when high gas prices were bad for us?
Let’s review: High gas prices, bad. Low gas prices, bad. This makes it kind of difficult to know what to root for.
The benefits of low gas prices are obvious. When gas prices are low it costs less. Less, of course, is relative. It’s still too high. The lowest I ever paid for a gas was back in the early 1970s as a high school kid in North Miami. The benchmark price was 29.9 cents a gallon. One price war chopped the price to 19.9 cents.
Back to today, or, actually, Dec. 19 when Austin American-Statesman business writer Claudia“The Grinch” Grisales inflicted reality upon us in a story explaining that low gas prices are bad for us. Thanks a lot, Claudia, way to screw up the festive holiday season.
The headline:“Experts: Lower oil prices a threat to Texas economy.” Experts. They think they’re such experts. Who needs ‘em?
The experts Grisales quoted reminded us Texas, despite recent diversification (largely the proliferation of Buc-ee’s stores), remains linked to oil.
Local economist Brian Kelsey did some math. Economists are like that. Always showing off by doing math. His math says if oil and gas industry earnings fall 20 percent in Texas, the state could lose 212,000 jobs and $13.5 billion in earnings.
“Earnings in the oil and gas sector drive a significant portion of overall economic activity in Texas,” Kelsey said in Grisales’ story.“So consumers may enjoy seeing lower gas prices, but falling oil prices can hurt more in other ways.”
I get it. I was around the Capitol in 1986 when plummeting oil prices caused significant fiscal heartburn for the state. Nevertheless, I’m still feeling that pleasant, light-headed feeling when I’m paying a dollar less per gallon than I did not that long ago. Does that make me a bad man?
So I called Michael Webber, deputy director of the Energy Institute at the University of Texas. Mr. Webber, am I a bad man for enjoying declining gas prices?
“If you are a person who consumes energy, which is everybody, then you should be happy about the lower energy prices,” Webber said, making me feel better about myself.
“If you are a producer of energy – the guy who pulls oil out of the ground or an investor or employee of those companies – you should be unhappy,” Webber said.
I produce no energy, and remain sufficiently immature to chuckle when a legislator lists his occupation as“gas producer.”
But what of the indirect economic impact on me, the bad stuff predicted by the expert sayers of doom?
Yes, Webber said, if oil prices drop too far too quickly,“the economy could collapse.”
I’m no expert, but I think that would not be good for me.
Webber talked about 1986 and falling oil prices and failed real estate investments and savings and loans scandals and bailouts and all manner of economic mayhem. (On the positive side, my New York Mets won the World Series in ‘86.)
Webber seems to think everything will be fine. In general, he made me feel OK about feeling great about paying $2.05.9 a gallon at Costco (where – and I hate to brag – I’m a Gold Star member, and where the price dropped another penny this week).
Webber summed up thusly:“Even a dead cat will bounce if you drop it.”
Ken Herman is a columnist for the Austin American-Statesman.