Here's how Mike Duggan's exit changes the Michigan governor's race
President Donald Trump's approval rating became the elephant in the room, with independent candidate Mike Duggan leaving the race for governor, said Richard Czuba, a Michigan pollster whose surveys documented the former mayor's rise and fall in recent months.
In an interview Friday, Czuba, founder of the firm Glengariff Group, said he expected voters who were backing Duggan to retreat to their normal political corners.
However, Czuba noted two factors to watch, less than six months before the general election: the Republican president's weak approval numbers and Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer's strong approval numbers.
"They are angry with Donald Trump," Czuba said of Michigan voters.
Trump's decision to go to war with Iran and the impact of that choice on gas prices might be the galvanizing moment of the 2026 election, Czuba said.
On Thursday, Duggan, who served three terms as Detroit's mayor, cited both issues as topics that had devoured the public's interest on the campaign trail, hindering his independent bid. Duggan, a former Democrat, said Democrats appeared to be "surging" because of voter frustration with Trump.
Czuba's Glengariff Group does polling for both The Detroit News and the Detroit Regional Chamber, which endorsed Duggan.
A Glengariff survey done in late January and early February found Duggan at 30% leading a hypothetical general election matchup with Republican U.S. Rep. John James at 29% and Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson at 28%.
A similar survey, conducted in late April and early May by Glengariff, had Benson at 34%, James at 29% and Duggan at 23%. The former mayor had gone from up 2 points on Benson to down 11.
Meanwhile, the same poll found 57% of those surveyed disapproved of Trump's job performance, while 52%, a majority, approved of Whitmer's performance.
Duggan's supporters, donors and the labor unions and business groups that backed him will now have to decide where to go next.
Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson, who's running against Benson in the Democratic primary, said he'll work to win over some of the organizations and individuals who had been in Duggan's coalition.
"I welcome his people," Swanson said.
State Rep. Alabas Farhat, D-Dearborn, who was viewed as a potential Duggan ally, is a lawmaker to watch in the coming weeks. Likewise, among the union groups now in play are the Michigan Regional Council of Carpenters and Millwrights and the Michigan Professional Fire Fighters Union.
Chris DeWitt, a longtime Democratic consultant, labeled Duggan's exit a huge boost for Benson's campaign. DeWitt suggested Duggan's failed run also could have the effect of dissuading other independent candidates for governor in the future.
"Duggan's running was the best chance in modern history, certainly in Michigan, for an independent to make a serious run for governor," DeWitt said. "I don't know of anyone else of his stature who would even consider it down the road."
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