Hot stove heats up as Cardinals weigh trade options for Arenado, Gray, Contreras
With Major League Baseball’s annual general managers’ meetings getting underway Monday in Las Vegas, the unofficial kickoff to the offseason puts the St. Louis Cardinals back into the depths of trade waters that they did not successfully navigate last winter but are determined to best this year.
There is something of a “three bears” posture around three prominent veterans on the team’s roster as the winter kicks off, each of whom possesses a no-trade clause which puts him in full control of his destiny.
Willson Contreras is a candidate to be dealt, but his interest in being moved has not, to date, been particularly high. Nolan Arenado fully expects to be moved, and both he and the team are in a committed lock step when it comes to making that happen. Sonny Gray is in the middle, with both player and team happy to find a deal if one materializes, but neither committing to that future.
Arenado remains the most challenging case of the three, given that he still has two years and approximately $37 million in net commitment remaining on his contract, coming off far and away the most challenging season of his career. Limited by injuries to just 107 games and 436 plate appearances, he was also a less productive hitter as measured by OPS+ than Nolan Gorman, who once again struck out roughly every third time he stepped to the plate.
While Arenado’s defense rebounded to make him once again one of the league’s top gloves at third base, it’s difficult to see much optimism for his offensive stats rebounding. Though he has insisted that his injuries aren’t the result of wear and tear which comes with age, data would suggest otherwise, and a troublesome shoulder can be difficult to overcome.
The Philadelphia Phillies seemed like the most logical destination for Arenado last winter, and that has seemingly only intensified after another year of playoff disappointment. Arriving in a market where he can be cast as a strong defender at third base but not be obligated to tote the run-producing weight of the lineup is Arenado’s best role at this point in his career, and shopping for big names has long been the way they’ve done business.
Outside of Philadelphia, identifying obvious trade spots can be challenging. The Houston Astros reached an agreement with the Cardinals last winter that was scuttled by Arenado’s no-trade clause and briefly re-engaged during spring training, but the sizable contract they signed with Christian Walker (who did not meet expectations in his first season) could still be an obstacle.
Gray comes with a slightly smaller financial commitment than Contreras. He’s owed $40 million including the buyout of his 2027 option; Contreras has two years and $41.5 million left including his own buyout.
The single year commitment, though, will be appealing to teams, especially in a market in which avoiding commitments which carry over into the next collective bargaining agreement will be prized.
While his ERA spiked in 2025, a large portion of that was due to an unusually high batting average allowed on balls in play and a jump in his home run rate.
Those things in concert paint the picture of a pitcher who endured some bad luck and tried some creative solutions with his pitch mix which saw him instead get tagged. Even with the anticipated amount of age-based regression, Gray still profiles as a strikeout-heavy starter who can more than carry the load for a contending team in the middle of a rotation.
When he signed with the Cardinals ahead of the 2024 season, Gray made it clear that proximity to his home near Nashville was important to him. While he acknowledged toward the end of the season that he has a strong desire to chase a championship, he’s also an esoteric personality who has a history of struggling under the scrutiny of the game’s premiere markets, given his rough ride as a New York Yankee.
Atlanta would seem to be the most obvious fit if they do indeed intend to treat 2025’s failures as a fluke and make a strong run at returning to contention in 2026. Bob Melvin’s departure from the San Francisco Giants will perhaps make a return to the bay area less likely than it otherwise might have been.
The Washington Nationals may well take a look at trading staff ace MacKenzie Gore this winter, given where he is in his team control, but Gray would represent an intriguing option for maintaining a similar level of performance (at a much higher one-year price tag) who they could nonetheless flip at the trade deadline if things go south.
Contreras had arguably the best offensive season of his career in 2025 and coupled that with better-than-expected defense at first base in his first year after transitioning to that spot. Whether there are teams which still view him as a part-time option as a catcher – and whether he himself is interested in that – is not yet clear, though he’s certainly a better emergency option than an average team has on its roster.
If Contreras is going to be successfully approached with a potential deal, it stands to reason that it would only be with a contender where he could slip into the middle of a lineup.
The Seattle Mariners could lose Josh Naylor to free agency and certainly would benefit from Contreras’ pop, though their ballpark suppresses homers and may not be an appealing destination. Houston previously had a deal largely worked out to acquire Contreras in 2022 before it was scuttled by then-manager Dusty Baker, but with Walker in place and Yordan Alvarez as the designated hitter, it’s difficult to see a positional fit there either.
Perhaps the prudent decision for both player and team in Contreras’ case would be to let the season play out up to the trade deadline and re-examine what options have emerged throughout the year.
There is much less urgency to move him than either of the other two, and patience might best fit what’s sure to be a young team in St. Louis that will need his pop just as badly as any new team might.
