Dolphins GM Chris Grier agrees this needs to be a ‘great draft’
We’re live-blogging tonight during the first round of the NFL Draft, offering instant commentary on every pick, 1 through 32, and telling how other teams’ selections may impact the Miami Dolphins, who hold the 13th overall pick barring a trade up or down.
For better or worse, we’ll also have a pick-by-pick tabulation of how my 28th annual Official Miami Herald Mock Draft is faring compared to the mock drafts of ESPN experts Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay, so check back often.
I do one and only one Mock Draft; it published Wednesday. Kiper and McShay do what seems like about a thousand mocks, but each published his final one Thursday. Turns out Kiper and I agreed on only six of 32 picks, meaning same player to same team. McShay and I agreed on only three. (So much for the scurrilous idea my picks simply mimic theirs).
I refer to the right player to the right team as an Exacto (a.k.a Perfecto), and I have had more of those the past two years (12) than either Kiper or McShay -- which is ridiculous, because they make make a year-round cottage industry of this. The point is, for even the most expert draftniks, this is a glorified guessfest.
Below is a synopsis of my Mock Draft, which (like Kiper’s and McShay’s) does not predict trades. Check back throughout the night for continuous updates including all trades.
How much is the NFL hating that developments in the Tyreek Hil/domestic violence case is a prelude to this draft?
Kyler Murray, in a pink suit, dropping a “Great Gatsby” shoutout. Who knew?
Seismic jolt from Nashville if Arizona does not open this by selecting the pink-suited Gatsby fan.
They’re not booing the commissioner. They’re saying, “Gooooooooodell!”
1. Arizona Cardinals select Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma: Possible major impact on Dolphins. Cards taking Murray means last year’s top ‘Zona pick Josh Rosen is now on the trading block, with Miami prominent among interested teams. He’d be a steal for a third round pick. Rosen could be developed into a franchise guy. Wouldn’t prevent Fins still dreaming about getting Tua Tagovailoa or another top arm in 2020, but it would be a pretty good safety net if they can’t. EXACTOS METER: Cote 1, Kiper 1, McShay 1.
2. San Francisco 49ers select Nick Bosa, DE, Ohio State: If only daddy John Bosa was as good in the NFL for the Dolphins in the 1987 draft as his sons Joey and Nick are today. No surprise here. Who needs 10 minutes! EXACTOS METER: Cote 2, Kiper 2, McShay 2. (Now the battle gets interesting. It’s like Game Of Thrones in here!)
3. New York Jets select Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama: I had Josh Allen going here. In my mock I wrote, “Tough to bypass Quinnen Williams.” Wish I’d listened to myself. EXACTOS METER: Kiper 3, McShay 3, Cote 2.
4. Oakland Raiders select Clelin Ferrell, DE, Clemson: First real shock of draft. I had Ferrell going 16th. Miami liked him but I thought could maybe trade down to get him. EXACTOS METER: Kiper 3, McShay 3, Cote 2. (Nobody got this).
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Devin White, ILB, Louisiana State — Nailed it! Thought Bucs could be a trade partner for somebody. None of those yet. EXACTOS METER: Kiper 4, Cote 3, McShay 3.
6. New York Giants select Daniel Jones, QB, Duke: I wasn’t buying that Biggies had cooled on Haskins. Well, I was the only one of we three mockers to have NYG taking a QB. It was just the wrong one. A reach at 6. This is a QB the Dolphins had on their radar -- but with a trade-down or even a Day 2 pick. EXACTOS METER: Kiper 4, Cote 3, McShay 3.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars select Josh Allen, DE, Kentucky: I had Allen going third, so a nice get for Bucs. Florida OT Jawann Taylor, my pick here, now becomes a viable need-option for Miami at 13 if he continues to fall. A bit surprised no trades yet. EXACTOS METER: Kiper 4, Cote 3, McShay 3. Stalled. Let’s pick it up!
8. Detroit Lions select T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa: Montez Sweat, DE, Mississippi State: Bit of a reach? I had him going 19th. But I also reached in pegging Montez Sweat for this spot. EXACTOS METER: Kiper 4, Cote 3, McShay 3. Still stalled. Where the next Exacto at!?
9. Buffalo Bills select Ed Oliver, DT, Houston Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson: I had Buffs going DT here but thought it would be Clemson’s Christian Wilkins -- now a guy Miami will weigh heavily at 13 if he’s still around. EXACTOS METER: Kiper 4, Cote 3, McShay 3. #DroughtinIt
10. TRADE! Pittsburgh Steelers (from Denver) select Devin Bush, ILB, Michigan: I had Bush going 11th; Steelers must have really had a conviction to move up from 20th. Thought Broncos would go QB Drew Lock here. EXACTOS METER: Kiper 4, Cote 3, McShay 3. (McShay had Bush going 10th, but not to Steelers).
11. Cincinnati Bengals select Jonah Williams, OT, Alabama: Had Williams going 18th, and Devin Bush going here. I wrote that “’Gals could also go for tackle such as Jonah Williams,” but didn;t pull trigger. EXACTOS METER: Kiper 4, McShay 4, Cote 3. Nice get, McShay. C’mon, Cote!
12. Green Bay Packers select Rashan Gary, DE-OLB, Michigan: Damn! Gary was my pick for the Dolphins one spot lower! Saw Pack taking WR D.K. Metcalf here. EXACTOS METER: Kiper 4, McShay 4, Cote 3.
13. MIAMI DOLPHINS SELECT CHRISTIAN WILKINS, DT, CLEMSON: Rashan Gary went one spot earlier, so Fins taking Wilkins did not surprise.. Strong choice. I had him going 9th to Bills. [Column coming soon. Because of that, Mock Draft updates will be slower from here]. EXACTOS METER: Kiper 5, McShay 5, Cote 3.
OK here’s my new column on Dolphins’ top pick: Miami Lands Big Prize in Clemson’s Wilkins.
Now let’s catch up with the draft:
14. Atlanta Falcons select Chris Lindstrom, OG, Boston College: Had Lindstrom going 21st and Ed Oliver here. Wrote they might look at guard, but shied from the pick. EXACTOS METER: Kiper 5, McShay 5, Cote 3.
15. Washington Redskins select Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio StateMarquise Brown, WR, Oklahoma: I thought Haskins would go much earlier. Had Skins taking Marquise Brown or trading up for as QB. Instead they got a good one without moving. EXACTOS METER: McShay 6, Kiper 5, Cote 3. McShay pulling away. From me, at least.
16. Carolina Panthers select Brian Burns, OLB, Florida State: Had Clelin Ferrell going here. Thought Burns might last ’til 20th. EXACTOS METER: McShay 6, Kiper 5, Cote 3. Halfway through, Cote needs a rally.
17. New York Giants select Dexter Lawrence, DT, Clemson: I thought he’d last until 26th. Had Byron Murphy going here. EXACTOS METER: McShay 6, Kiper 5, Cote 3.
18. Minnesota Vikings select Garrett Bradbury, C, North Carolina State: Had Bradbury going 31st; thought Jonah Williams would last ‘til here. EXACTOS METER: McShay 7, Kiper 5, Cote 3. Todd #McPullingaway
19. Tennessee Titans select Jeffery Simmons, DT, Mississippi State T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa: Thought Simmons, with all that off-field baggage, might be a Day 2 picks. Guessed T.J. Hockenson wojuld drop to here. EXACTOS METER: McShay 7, Kiper 5, Cote 3.
20. TRADE! Denver Broncos (from Pittsburgh) select Noah Fant, TE, Iowa: Saw Fant lasting until 30th, a Brian Burns dropping this far. EXACTOS METER: McShay 7, Kiper 5, Cote 3.
21. TRADE! Green Bay Packers (from Seattle) select Darnell Savage, S, Maryland Seahawks: Thought Chris Lindstrtiom would last until here. Did not have Savage in my round. EXACTOS METER: McShay 7, Kiper 5, Cote 3. My kingdom for another Exacto.
22. TRADE! Philadelphia Eagles (from Baltimore) select Andre Dillard, OT, Washington State: Had Dillard going out spot lower (!). Had Josh Jacobs going here. EXACTOS METER: McShay 7, Kiper 5, Cote 3.
23. Houston Texans select Tytus Howard, OT, Alabama State: Had Andre Dillard here. Right position, wrong guy. Howard was not on my 1R radar. EXACTOS METER: McShay 7, Kiper 5, Cote 3.
24. Oakland Raiders select Josh Jacobs, RB, Alabama: Greedy Williams, CB, Louisiana State: Had Jacobs going two spots earlier. Saw Greedy Williams here. EXACTOS METER: McShay 8, Kiper 6, Cote 3. OK, this is getting embarrassing!
25. TRADE! Baltimore Ravens (from Philadelphia) select Marquise Brown, WR, Oklahoma Eagles — Johnathan Abram, S, Mississippi State: Had Brown going sooner. Saw Johnathan Abram here. EXACTOS METER: McShay 8, Kiper 6, Cote 3. (Kiper had Brown going 25th, but not to right team).
26. TRADE! Washington Redskins (from Indianapolis) select Montez Sweat, DE, Mississippi State: Saw Sweat going much earlier. Had Dexter Lawrence dropping to this spot. EXACTOS METER: McShay 8, Kiper 6, Cote 3.
27. Oakland Raiders select Johnathan Abram, S, Mississippi State: Had Abram going sooner; saw Parris Campbell here. EXACTOS METER: McShay 8, Kiper 6, Cote 3. Working on my concession speech,
28. Los Angeles Chargers select Jerry Tillery, DT, Notre Dame: Wrote “also could go with DT,” but Tillery was nowhere on my board. Had Cody Ford here. EXACTOS METER: McShay 8, Kiper 6, Cote 3.
29. Seattle Seahawks select L.J. Collier, DE, TCU: Had Deandre Baker here. Had Collier nowhere in my round. EXACTOS METER: McShay 8, Kiper 6, Cote 3.
30. TRADE! New York Giants (from Green Bay) select Deandre Baker, CB, Georgia Packers — Noah Fant, TE, Iowa: Had Baker going one spot above. Had Fant going earlier. EXACTOS METER: McShay 8, Kiper 6, Cote 3. McShay prepping his victory speech.
31. TRADE! Atlanta Falcons (from L.A. Rams) select Kaleb McGary, OT, Washington: Had Garrett Bradbury here; he went earlier. Couldn’t pick McGary out of a police lineup. EXACTOS METER: McShay 8, Kiper 6, Cote 3.
32. New England Patriots select N’Keal Harry, WR, Arizona State: Had Irv Smith going here. Never heard of Harry, but since Belichick did it, it’s a great pick. FINAL EXACTOS METER: McShay 8, Kiper 6, Cote 3. I am chagrined. Am filing suit demanding a recount!