GasBuddy: July 4 gas prices projected at second-highest level on record

The 2026 Independence Day gas price forecast by GasBuddy is projecting the national average price of gas will fall to approximately $3.75 per gallon on July 4 - the second most expensive Independence Day on record.

This is coming behind the all-time high of $4.80 on July 4, 2022. The projection comes despite six consecutive weeks of national average declines following a spring spike driven by the Strait of Hormuz closure.

July 4 gas prices over the last 5 years:

* 2021: $3.12 per gallon

* 2022: $4.80 per gallon (record high)

* 2023: $3.46 per gallon

* 2024: $3.49 per gallon

* 2025: $3.10 per gallon

* 2026: ~$3.75 per gallon (projected)

The recent U.S.-Iran framework agreement has helped ease supply fears and pull prices lower, but the accord remains fragile and risks to the upside are significant, according to a news release. However, with the U.S. Department of Treasury authorizing the sale of oil by Iran, oil prices recently fell below $70 a barrel, which may help consumers see lower prices, faster, with global inventories benefitting from the additional oil.

"Six weeks of declines sounds like good news, and in some ways it is, but the context matters," said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. "At roughly $3.75, this would be the second most expensive July 4 ever recorded, roughly 65 cents higher than last year and nearly $1 above where prices started in 2026. The U.S.-Iran agreement gives markets hope, but it's being tested, and any breakdown in those talks could reverse the recent relief quickly. Drivers should use every tool available to find the lowest prices near them before filling up."

While the projected $3.75 per gallon average represents a dramatic improvement from May's peak of $4.57, it still marks roughly a 65-cent increase from last July 4's $3.10 per gallon average, and a stark reminder of how significantly the Strait of Hormuz closure reshaped the price environment for 2026. Americans will spend hundreds of millions more on gasoline this July 4 holiday weekend compared to last year.

Only 2022's record spike, driven by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and pandemic-era demand surges, has produced a more expensive Independence Day at the pump.

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This story was originally published June 26, 2026 at 8:37 PM.