Institute that forecasts coronavirus cases, deaths shows Illinois is nearing its peak
A research group forecasting COVID-19 infections and deaths across the country has estimated that Illinois will reach its peak on Sunday while also reducing its estimate on how many in the state might die from the virus.
Maintaining social distancing standards for several more weeks, however, remains key to maintaining the trend it is projecting.
The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation projected earlier this week that if full social distancing takes place through May, 1,588 Illinois residents would die from COVID-19 by Aug. 4, a steep drop from the 3,386 deaths by Aug. 1 it predicted only a week ago.
On the peak day, Sunday, April 12, which is Easter Sunday, the group estimates there will be 91 COVID-19 deaths in Illinois.
In southwestern Illinois, as of Wednesday, a total of 294 cases of coronavirus had been reported, up 57 from Tuesday’s total. Statewide, 462 people have died from the virus as of Wednesday.
Along with the number of deaths, the university’s institute is also tracking several other statistics for individual states. In Illinois, the institute predicts that on Saturday, April 11, the state will see its highest use of resources with 710 intensive care unit beds needed and 3,762 hospital beds needed statewide.
In total, Illinois has 14,552 beds and 1,131 beds in its intensive care units. The state, according to the institute, will not have a shortage of beds, as had been feared when governors instituted stay-at-home orders.
At a recent news conference, Gov. J.B. Pritzker said the state is reviewing the institute’s models as well as other models with estimates of higher deaths and delayed peak times. He said the state’s own modeling indicates that staying at home has lessened the rate of Illinoisans getting sick.
Dr. Karen Joynt Maddox, a public health expert with Washington University and cardiologist at Barnes-Jewish Hospital in St. Louis, said the models are a “far cry” from what could have been.
“My understanding is large parts of Illinois have been spared. We had some advance warning, so not as many people will get sick,” Joynt Maddox said.
She added that the numbers of confirmed cases in the state have become “linear,” meaning they are consistent each day.
And as for social distancing? She said it’s still needed but most likely won’t be the case forever.
“I think the important point here is we don’t need to do this for that much longer. We need to do it to some degree for months and months. We need to be smart about how we undo it,” she said.
This story was originally published April 9, 2020 at 1:22 PM.