Poll: Incumbent Kirk trails Duckworth by 3 points in U.S. Senate race

It’s not often that an incumbent candidate releases an internal poll that shows he’s trailing a challenger. But U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk, R-Ill. — a moderate who’s been called the Senate’s most “endangered” GOP incumbent — has shared the results of a poll his campaign commissioned that show him 3 points behind the Democratic nominee, U.S. Rep. Tammy Duckworth.

A statewide survey conducted in late March of 600 likely general election voters showed Duckworth with 42.7 percent, versus 39.6 percent for Kirk, with 18 percent undecided. GS Strategy Group conducted the survey, with a margin of error of plus/minus 4 percent.

The poll supports Kirk’s decision to call for an up-or-down vote on U.S. Supreme Court nominee Merrick Garland. More than 60 percent of respondents said the U.S. Senate should hold hearings and a confirmation vote for Garland

Illinois voters also believe there is a likely chance America will be the target of another terrorist attack within the next year, with more than half of respondents saying it is extremely likely, 27.6 percent, or very likely, 28.1 percent. What’s more, almost 60 percent agree with Kirk’s position not allow Syrian refugees into the U.S. until it can be done safely.

The Illinois Senate contest “remains incredibly tight,” GS founder Greg Strimple wrote in his memo, according to a Chicago Sun-Times story Wednesday.

Duckworth pollster Jill Normington, writing a rebuttal memo, concluded that the Kirk poll memo release “is a clear sign that Kirk is in trouble, and that his only hope is to scare voters. His internal numbers show him to be weak,” the newspaper reported

This story was originally published April 6, 2016 at 12:29 PM with the headline "Poll: Incumbent Kirk trails Duckworth by 3 points in U.S. Senate race."