Harris and Trump are set to debate for first time. Will it matter? Experts weigh in

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump will soon go head-to-head on the debate stage for the first time.

Following weeks of planning and deliberations, the pair will take part in a prime-time ABC News debate on Sept. 10 in Philadelphia.

But just how important will the televised war of words be to voters? Could it reshape the close election? This itself is a matter of some debate among political experts.

Disputed importance

“Debates, historically, don’t move needles,” Leslie Marshall, a Democratic strategist and Fox News contributor, told McClatchy News. “If it were up to who won debates, John Kerry and Hillary Clinton would have been president.”

“The vast majority will see what they want to see in the candidate they’ve already decided to vote for,” Stephen Craig, a political science professor at the University of Florida, told McClatchy News.

The exception, of course, was the June debate between Trump and President Joe Biden. Biden’s halting, occasionally incoherent performance increased voter concerns about his age and triggered widespread alarm within the Democratic party, which ultimately led him to withdraw from the race.

But, the chances of a “huge, serious issue” like that happening again — either to Harris or Trump — are slim, Marshall said.

Echoing this sentiment, Robert Shapiro, a professor of government at Columbia University, told McClatchy News, “Dramatic things like (Biden’s poor performance) can happen but I do not expect something of this magnitude on September 10th.”

As to how consequential the debate might be, Shapiro said it could have a “small effect” on the election outcome in swing states — adding “and that’s all it might take.”

Candice Nelson, a professor of government at American University, is of the mind that the Sept. 10 debate will be even more significant than the Biden-Trump debate.

“This one is more important because they have never debated each other,” Nelson told McClatchy News. “And they are both their party’s nominees.”

John Feehery, a Republican strategist, agreed that the debate is of great importance — but for a different reason.

“Right now, this seems like the only chance that the American people will get to see how Kamala Harris answers questions by the media that aren’t severely edited to make her appear coherent,” Feehery told McClatchy News.

On the other hand, the public already knows Trump “and are largely inured to his behavior, whether they love it or not,” Feehery said.

Smart strategies

In order to maximize their chances of swaying over swing voters, there are a few things both Trump and Harris should do — or not do, experts said. But even here, there is disagreement.

“Trump needs to show that he can focus on issues and criticisms of the Biden Administration’s and Harris’s performance and policy positions,” Shapiro said.

He added that Trump shouldn’t “go on ad hominem tangents that show he is unfocused and unpresidential.”

Republican strategists have relayed this advice to Trump, which he has mostly ignored, likely to his detriment, Craig said.

“Does he have to change the narrative in order to sway those voters who are on the fence?” Craig said. “I would think so but that’s what I (and a whole lot of other ‘experts’) thought in 2016 and you know how that turned out.”

The Harris campaign, meanwhile, appears eager for Trump to engage in personal attacks, reportedly fighting to keep the microphones live throughout the debate, according to Politico.

For Harris, multiple experts said she can appeal to swing voters by clearly laying out her policy proposals and putting them in stark contrast to Trump’s.

“She has to be sharp on her economic plans and on the immigration issues, and in cases she has changed her positions say they are justified based on changes in circumstances and, in some cases, the need to be open to compromise, and to moderation in the short term,” Shapiro said.

This advice comes as Republicans have accused her of flip-flopping on multiple issues since her first presidential run in 2020.

“Her emphasis on her unchanging values may continue to help” combat these attacks, Shapiro said.

Craig, meanwhile, downplayed the importance of Harris articulating specific policy proposals to win over undecided voters.

“I doubt that policy per se will decide this election,” he said. “Issues broadly speaking, yes, but mostly in the sense of which candidate (swing) voters feel can do a better job on the issues they believe are important.”

Marshall agreed, saying “We don’t really know what those undecided voters need to hear from either one of them.”

At the end of the day, even if some swing voters are persuaded by the debate, “it’s still going to be a very tight race,” she said.

This story was originally published September 4, 2024 at 3:22 PM with the headline "Harris and Trump are set to debate for first time. Will it matter? Experts weigh in."