Map Shows Where Republicans Lost Registered Voters 6 Months From Midterms
The Republican Party lost voters in more than a dozen states over the past year following President Donald Trump's return to office as GOP incumbents find themselves on the defense ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Republicans and Democrats have lost voters in many states, according to data reviewed by Newsweek released by various secretaries of state offices, as more voters choose to identify as independent or unaffiliated. Some states do not register voters by party, so no data is available for them. Registration trends can reveal potential vulnerabilities for the Republicans ahead of the midterms, when Democrats are increasingly optimistic about flipping control of the House and Senate.
Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms, and Trump's approval rating has declined since his inauguration. Trump has faced concerns about the economy, inflation and cost of living amid his tariff efforts, and more recently the Iran war, which has sent gas prices surging. This could threaten to weaken Republicans running in key races.
Voter registration numbers can be influenced by a number of factors, including population shifts, migration patterns, the removal of inactive voters from voter rolls and people leaving a party when they are dissatisfied with its direction.
Newsweek reached out to the Republican National Committee (RNC) for comment via email.
This map shows the states in which Republicans have lost-and gained-voters over the past year.
Alaska
Republicans have seen a 2.6 percent drop in voter registration in Alaska from April 2025 to April 2026, according to data from the state's elections division.
Alaska's U.S. Senate race is viewed as one of the most competitive of the midterms. Republican Senator Dan Sullivan is facing numerous challengers, including former Representative Mary Peltola, a Democrat who represented the state's at-large district from 2022 to 2025.
Polls show a tight race in Alaska, which uses a ranked choice voting system in which voters rank their preferred candidates. If no candidate wins an outright majority in the first round, the candidate with the lowest support is eliminated. This continues until a candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote.
The latest Alaska Survey Research poll released in April showed that in the first round, Peltola received 49.1 percent support to Sullivan's 42.5 percent, while Republican James Ryan had 5.2 percent and independent Sid Hill 3.2 percent.
Peltola held majority support in the second round of the poll with 50.2 percent to Sullivan's 43.6 percent. Ryan received 6.2 percent support in the second round. The poll surveyed 1,946 likely voters from April 16-19 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
The race is classified as Leans Republican by the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball.
Arizona
In Arizona, a critical battleground state, the number of registered Republicans fell 3.7 percent from April 2025 to April 2026, according to secretary of state data.
Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs is up for reelection in a state Trump won by more than 5 points in 2024-his strongest showing in a swing state as a result of his inroads with Latino voters and stronger performance in the Phoenix suburbs.
A recent survey from TIPP Insights showed Hobbs leading GOP Representative Andy Biggs by about 10 points among likely voters-48 percent said they would cast their ballots for the incumbent Democratic governor, while 38 percent said they would vote for Biggs, who is facing a primary but has led in polling.
The Cook Political Report classifies the race as a toss-up, while Sabato's Crystal Ball views it as Leans Democratic.
California
The number of registered Republicans fell 0.7 percent in California-a reliably Democratic state where a gubernatorial race has garnered national attention-from February 2025 to April 2026, according to state data.
Numerous candidates are running to replace Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat who cannot run because of term limits. The race has been upended by sexual misconduct allegations against former Representative Eric Swalwell, a Democrat who led polls before he dropped out of the race and resigned from Congress, and concerns that the state's "jungle primary" system could lead to a Democratic lockout.
All candidates will appear on a single primary ballot, and the top two candidates, regardless of party, will advance to the general election.
The latest independent poll from SurveyUSA showed Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Tom Steyer leading the pack with 20 percent and 18 percent support, respectively. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican, polled at 12 percent, while former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra was at 10 percent. No other candidates hit double digits. The poll surveyed 1,415 adults from April 28-May 1.
The race is considered to be Safe Democrat.
Colorado
Colorado, once a battleground that has shifted toward Democrats, saw the number of registered Republicans fall by 0.4 percent from April 2025 to April 2026. Colorado has a Senate and gubernatorial race this year, but both are considered safe for Democrats, with no public polling available for either.
Connecticut
In Connecticut, the number of registered Republicans fell 4.2 percent from October 2024 to October 2025, according to state data. Governor Ned Lamont is running for reelection but is not expected to face a competitive race.
Delaware
Republicans also saw a 4.2 percent decline in registration numbers in Delaware, where Democratic Senator Chris Coons is running for reelection. The race is not expected to be competitive.
Florida
Republicans gained ground in Florida, where their registration numbers grew 0.2 percent. Although Florida was viewed as a major battleground through the 2010s, it is now viewed as more reliably Republican because of rightward shifts among the state's Hispanic and Latino populations and an influx of conservative retirees.
Democrats are still hoping to target the Senate seat held by Republican Ashley Moody, who was appointed by Governor Ron DeSantis after Marco Rubio was confirmed as U.S. secretary of state, as well as the gubernatorial race to replace DeSantis, who is term-limited. Democrats are trailing in polls but believe the state may be more competitive this year, in part because of strong special election performances this year.
A recent Emerson College poll gave Republicans an advantage in both races.
Moody led Alex Vindman by 8 points (46 percent to 38 percent) and state Representative Angie Nixon by 11 points (47 percent to 36 percent) in the Senate race, according to the poll.
In the gubernatorial race, the poll gave GOP Representative Byron Donalds a 5-point lead over former Representative David Jolly (44 percent to 39 percent) and a 9-point lead over Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings (45 percent to 36 percent).
Idaho
Idaho removed more than 140,000 voters from its rolls in a 2025 cleanup, so both parties saw notable declines in registration numbers. The number of registered Republicans fell by 5.6 percent. Among the most conservative states in the country, its Senate and gubernatorial races are expected to be safe for Republicans.
Iowa
The number of registered Republicans increased 0.2 percent in Iowa, a former battleground that is now considered to be more conservative.
Democrats are targeting the Senate and gubernatorial races in the state. A recent Echelon Insights poll found that Democratic Auditor Rob Sand led GOP Representative Randy Feenstra in the gubernatorial race (51 percent to 39 percent).
In the Senate race, the poll gave Democrat Josh Turek a single-point lead over Republican Representative Ashley Hinson (46 percent to 45 percent), while Zach Wahls, a Democratic legislator, led Hinson by 2 points (46 percent to 44 percent). It surveyed 377 likely voters from April 3-9 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 6.6 percentage points.
The Cook Political Report classifies the governor race as a toss-up, while Sabato's Crystal Ball classify it as Leans Republican. Both view the Senate race as Likely Republican.
Kansas
Republicans saw voter registration numbers drop by 1.3 percent in Kansas.
Democratic Governor Laura Kelly is unable to run again because of term limits, leaving open the seat in the generally conservative state. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify it as Leans Republican. Democrat Adam Hamilton entered the Senate race last month, but Republicans are viewed as favorites.
Kentucky
In Kentucky, the number of registered Republicans increased 1.8 percent. Senator Mitch McConnell is retiring this year, but the race to replace him is not expected to be competitive, with Republicans significantly favored to hold the seat.
Louisiana
Republicans saw their numbers increase 0.6 percent in Louisiana, where the Senate race is expected to be safe for the GOP in November.
Maine
The number of registered Republicans fell 0.5 percent from November 2024 to November 2025 in Maine, home to one of the most competitive Senate races of the midterms. GOP Senator Susan Collins is running for reelection and is likely to face Democrat Graham Platner in the general election after Governor Janet Mills ended her campaign last month.
A recent Emerson College poll, which surveyed 1,075 likely voters from March 21-23, showed Platner leading Collins by 7 points (48 percent to 41 percent). It had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
Democrats are favored in the gubernatorial race.
Massachusetts
The number of registered Republicans in Massachusetts fell 2.6 percent from October 2024 to February 2025. The Senate and gubernatorial races are not expected to be competitive as Massachusetts remains one of the most reliably Democratic states in the country.
Nebraska
The number of registered Republicans in Nebraska fell 0.5 percent.
Republican Senator Pete Ricketts is facing a challenge from independent Dan Osborn, who ran for Senate in 2024. Polls show a potentially close race. Impact Research, a Democratic firm, found Ricketts with only a single-point lead (48 percent to 47 percent). The survey polled 600 likely voters from February 2-5 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The gubernatorial race is not viewed as competitive.
Nevada
Republicans also saw a 0.5 percent drop in registered voters from April 2025 to April 2026 in Nevada, a swing state Trump carried in 2024. Nevada's gubernatorial race is viewed as competitive. GOP Governor Joe Lombardo is up for reelection, and Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford is viewed as the leading Democratic candidate in the primary.
A recent Noble Predictive Insights poll, which surveyed 845 registered voters from March 10-13, showed Lombardo up a single point (39 percent to 38 percent). It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.37 percentage points.
New Hampshire
In New Hampshire, Republicans' registration numbers fell 2.6 percent from May 2025 to May 2026. It will have Senate and gubernatorial elections in November.
A recent University of New Hampshire poll found that GOP Governor Kelly Ayotte is on a path to reelection, leading New Hampshire Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington, a Democrat, by 8 points (47 percent to 39 percent).
At the same time, Democratic Representative Chris Pappas held an advantage in the Senate race. He led former Senator John Sununu by 6 points (49 percent to 43 percent) and former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown by 15 (52 percent to 37 percent). Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen is retiring.
It surveyed 1,295 voters from April 17-21 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.
Cook considers the Senate race Leans Democrat but the gubernatorial race Likely Republican.
New Jersey
From May 2025 to May 2026, the number of registered Republicans in New Jersey grew 3.4 percent. Democratic Senator Cory Booker is up for reelection but is not expected to face a tight race.
New Mexico
Republicans saw their numbers grow 1.9 percent from May 2025 to May 2026 in New Mexico, where Democrats are favored in both the Senate and gubernatorial races.
New York
The number of Republicans increased 0.6 percent in New York from February 2025 to February 2026. Republicans are hoping to unseat Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul, as she only narrowly won in 2022 and Democrats performed poorly in the state in 2024 because of GOP inroads with Hispanic, Latino and Asian American voters in New York City.
But Hochul has established a polling lead in the race, which comes as Republicans face a tough national environment that could make flips in traditionally Democratic states more challenging. The Cook Political Report classifies it as Safe Democratic.
The latest Siena College poll gave Hochul a 16-point lead over Republican Bruce Blakeman, who serves as Nassau County executive. It polled 806 registered voters from April 27-30 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
North Carolina
Republican registration numbers rose 1.7 percent from 2025 to 2026 in North Carolina, a major battleground Trump carried by about 3 points in 2024. Although it is viewed as a swing state, Democrats last won a federal race there in 2008.
Its Senate race is viewed as among the most competitive this year after GOP Senator Thom Tillis opted to retire. Democrats scored their top recruit with former Governor Roy Cooper, who is set to face former RNC Chair Michael Whatley in November.
Polls give Cooper an advantage. The latest poll from High Point University gave Cooper an 8-point lead among likely voters (50 percent to 42 percent). It surveyed 800 adults from March 26-April 6 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
Oklahoma
Oklahoma’s Republican registration numbers rose 2.2 percent from April 2025 to April 2026 and they are favored in both the Senate and gubernatorial races.
Oregon
From May 2025 to May 2026, the number of registered Republicans in Oregon fell 0.1 percent. Democrats are favored in the Senate and gubernatorial races.
Pennsylvania
In purple Pennsylvania, the number of registered Republicans increased 0.3 percent from May 2025 to May 2026.
Although Trump won Pennsylvania in 2024, Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro holds a strong polling lead against state Treasurer Stacy Garrity. A Quinnipiac University poll, which surveyed 836 registered voters from February 19-23, gave him a 16-point lead (55 percent to 39 percent).
Rhode Island
The number of registered Republicans decreased 6.7 percent from May 2025 to May 2026 in Rhode Island, which is generally viewed as a Democratic state, and Democrats are favored in the Senate and gubernatorial races.
South Dakota
South Dakota’s Republican registration numbers decreased 0.8 percent from April 2025 to April 2026, although the GOP is favored in the Senate and gubernatorial races.
Utah
The number of registered Republicans increased 1 percent in Utah from May 2025 to May 2026. There is no Senate or governor election in the state this year.
West Virginia
In West Virginia, the number of registered Republicans increased 4.7 percent. Senator Shelley Moore Capito, a Republican, is expected to easily win reelection in one of the most conservative states in the country.
Wyoming
GOP voter registration numbers fell 1.2 percent from May 2025 to May 2026 in Wyoming, one of the most reliably Republican states. Neither the 2026 Senate nor gubernatorial race is expected to be competitive.
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This story was originally published May 6, 2026 at 12:54 PM.