National

Republicans Lose Ground in Eight Key House Districts: Sabato's Crystal Ball

By Andrew Stanton Newsweek
House Speaker Mike Johnson. House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Louisiana Republican, attends a meeting in Washington, D.C. on November 13, 2024.
House Speaker Mike Johnson. House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Louisiana Republican, attends a meeting in Washington, D.C. on November 13, 2024. Tasos Katopodis Tasos Katopodis/GettyImages

Republicans lost ground in eight House races that could be crucial to the outcome of the 2026 midterm elections, the election forecaster Sabato's Crystal Ball said in its latest update on Wednesday.

Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms, and President Donald Trump's approval rating continues to decline amid concerns about the cost of living, gas prices and the Iran war. The new ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball underscore the trouble Republicans may be facing in their bid to hold onto their slim House majority as polls suggest Democrats are favored to reclaim control of the chamber in November.

Several of the shifts come from districts previously considered safe for Republicans, signaling an expanding battleground in this year's elections.

Newsweek reached out to the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) via email for comment.

The forecaster shifted the following eight races in favor of Democrats.

  • Indiana's First District, held by Democrat Frank Mrvan, shifted from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic.
  • Michigan's Fourth District, held by Republican Bill Huizenga, shifted from Likely Republican to Leans Republican.
  • Michigan's Eighth District, held by Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet, shifted from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic.
  • Minnesota's First District, held by Republican Brad Finstad, shifted from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.
  • North Carolina's 11th District, held by Republican Chuck Edwards, shifted from Likely Republican to Leans Republican.
  • Ohio's Ninth District, held by Democrat Marcy Kaptur, shifted from Leans Republican to Toss-up.
  • Ohio's Seventh District, held by Republican Max Miller, shifted from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.
  • Texas' 23rd District, which is vacant, shifted from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.

This is a breaking news story. Updates will follow.

House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Louisiana Republican, attends a meeting in Washington, D.C., on November 13, 2024.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Louisiana Republican, attends a meeting in Washington, D.C., on November 13, 2024. Tasos Katopodis GettyImages

2026 NEWSWEEK DIGITAL LLC.

This story was originally published May 6, 2026 at 3:36 PM.

Get unlimited digital access
#ReadLocal

Try 1 month for $1

CLAIM OFFER