Trump May Not Have the Votes to Replace Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito

President Donald Trump has spent recent weeks on what aides have called a “revenge tour” against Republican senators who have opposed him. The strategy involves endorsing challengers to incumbents who voted against him and pushing MAGA-aligned candidates in key races ahead of this year’s midterm elections.

If U.S. Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito or Justice Clarence Thomas retires before the end of the year, Trump would need to nominate a replacement for Senate confirmation. According to political analysts consulted by Newsweek, the president does not have the votes for confirmation.

Even as rumors persist about Alito stepping down-fueled by his March hospitalization for dehydration, his book publication scheduled for October, and comments about his judicial legacy-Trump’s endorsements have created tensions with some Republican senators whose votes would be crucial in any Supreme Court confirmation.

Four Swing Votes

Senator Susan Collins of Maine is running for reelection this year in a state that has trended Democratic. Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska defeated a Trump-backed primary challenger in 2022. Both have expressed concerns about supporting conservative Supreme Court nominees in the past.

Trump’s endorsements have directly affected three other Republicans critical to Supreme Court confirmations.

“Revenge is a two-way street,” said Jim Kessler of Third Way, a centrist think tank that tracks Democratic strategy and Republican fractures. “All the politicians that he’s gone after are either finished with their career or they hope to have a second start by being someone who took Trump on. So somebody like John Cornyn [of Texas], who’s been a Republican loyalist his entire life and was stabbed in the back by Trump.”

Cornyn until recently chaired the Senate Judiciary Committee, the panel that vets Supreme Court nominees before a full Senate vote. Trump endorsed state Attorney General Ken Paxton over Cornyn in the May 26 Texas Republican primary runoff for U.S. Senate.

Collins of Maine responded with criticism of Trump’s choice: “I don’t understand,” she said. “He [Paxton] is an ethically challenged individual. John Cornyn is an outstanding senator and merited the president’s support.”

Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina announced in 2025 that he would not seek reelection in 2026. With no future campaign to protect, Tillis voted against Trump on Iran war powers and opposed several administration judicial nominees.

Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana lost his primary on May 16 to a Trump-backed opponent. Trump had endorsed Julia Letlow, calling Cassidy “a sleazebag, a terrible guy, who is bad for Louisiana.” Days after the primary, Cassidy voted with Collins and Murkowski to force a Senate debate on Trump’s Iran war. He also announced opposition to White House ballroom funding in the budget reconciliation bill.

According to Kessler, that arithmetic makes confirmation impossible.

“People like Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins were already gonna be a no on any Supreme Court justice because Collins is up for reelection and Murkowski will be up soon,” he said. “And then you’ve got Tom Tillis as well. So, you know, I don’t think the votes are there for that.”

Math Doesn’t Work

Republicans control 53 Senate seats. To get a justice confirmed, if all Democrats vote no, Trump needs 50 Republicans to vote yes (Vice President JD Vance would cast the tiebreaking vote), which means he can afford to lose just three Republicans. If Murkowski, Collins and Tillis all defect, it would take just one more for confirmation to fail. Add Cassidy-who just lost his Louisiana primary after voting to convict Trump in the second impeachment-and Trump’s entire Supreme Court agenda collapses.

This scenario seemed remote just months ago. But the political environment has shifted dramatically. A year ago, Republicans were confident they would expand their Senate majority in the 2026 midterms. Now it is a coin toss whether Democrats gain the four seats needed to take control.

“A year ago, nobody ever believed that the Democrats would be within striking distance of getting a majority in the Senate. And now it’s, you know, it’s a coin toss. It’s as likely as that it’s not,” said Mike Madrid, a veteran Republican strategist. “That jeopardizes the entire Trump agenda. And of course, Supreme Court justice becomes a big part of that consideration.”

On Supreme Court confirmations, the political dynamics create competing pressures. A justice retirement would require Trump to maintain GOP unity behind his nominee. The four senators who have voted against Trump in recent weeks would be in position to block or condition their votes on a Supreme Court nominee’s confirmation.

The political environment adds another factor. Trump’s approval rating is underwater in several Senate battleground states. Maine shows a -17 net approval, Michigan is at -14 and even Texas, which Trump won by 14 percentage points in 2024, shows him at -3.

Matt Klink, president of Klink Campaigns, said the dynamic presents considerations for Republicans on judicial confirmations.

“The danger for Republicans is that Trump’s approval becomes the emotional shortcut voters use to make decisions in races they otherwise haven’t fully engaged,” Klink told Newsweek.

Will They Even Retire?

Trump has said in public remarks that he is prepared to nominate justices if vacancies arise. In April, he told Fox Business that he was “prepared” to nominate two or three justices. He has mentioned Senator Ted Cruz of Texas and Judge Aileen Cannon as possible nominees.

Alito and Thomas have publicly stated that they plan to remain on the bench. Alito hired law clerks for next term. Thomas told associates he “continues to love the work.” Neither justice has signaled any intention to retire.

Speculation about a possible Alito retirement appears in conservative legal circles. His book publication in October, scheduled one day after the new term begins, has been cited in discussions about his plans. His March hospitalization drew attention to questions about his health. Democratic competitive prospects in Senate races could shift control of the upper chamber by 2027.

Trump has said he is prepared to nominate justices if vacancies arise. But the political dynamics on Capitol Hill suggest confirmation of a conservative Supreme Court nominee would face significant obstacles. If either justice retires, the outcome would depend on votes from four Republicans Trump has engaged with directly in recent weeks.

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This story was originally published May 24, 2026 at 3:00 AM.