Strengthening El Niño has its eyes on history, updated forecast says
Federal forecasters have dramatically increased the chances that a new El Niño will grow into a historically strong event that will influence weather around the world.
Specifically, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center said on July 9 there is an 81% chance of a "very strong" El Niño by the fall. In June, the chance of a "very strong" event was 63%.
There's also a 97% chance the current El Niño will last through early spring 2027.
"Only 7 El Nino events over the last 75 years have been classified as very strong, so the expectation is that this event will be among the strongest in the historical record we monitor," said Michelle L'Heureux, physical scientist at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, in an email to USA TODAY.
What is El Niño and why does it matter?
El Niño is part of a larger climate cycle driven by the temperature of water in parts of the Pacific Ocean. The natural climate pattern affects weather worldwide, bringing a mixed bag of conditions across the globe.
It attracts so much attention because it can supercharge droughts, heavy rainfall events and heat waves in some areas. Previous El Niños have led to some of the hottest years on record, such as the record-breaking worldwide average temperature in 2024.
Studies show it can also have an eye-popping effect on the global economy.
Not all El Niño effects are sinister, however. The pattern is also expected to reduce hurricane activity in the Atlantic and could bring a milder winter (and lower heating bills) to millions of Americans.
Hurricane reducer
NOAA said that stronger events such as this one can more significantly tilt the odds in favor of expected impacts in the United States and around the world.
One major impact is that this El Niño may sharply reduce the number of hurricanes and tropical storms we can expect in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially began on June 1. So far, only one short-lived storm has formed (Tropical Storm Arthur).
Hurricane forecasters in early July reduced the expected number of named storms in the Atlantic to nine, well below the average of 14.
El Niño may also bring strong heat waves, droughts and flooding around the world.
"Every El Niño is not the same; each one is unique with its own imprint on our weather," said Ken Graham, director of NOAA's National Weather Service, in a statement.
What does El Niño mean for US weather?
El Niño tends to be strongest during the winter months, and its global impacts are typically most significant in the Northern Hemisphere winter, NOAA said.
"During a typical El Niño winter, the jet stream over the north Pacific Ocean tends to shift southward, bringing the storm track over the southern tier of the U.S.," according to a NOAA statement. "The southward shift in the storm track also leads to drier conditions over the northern Rockies and Ohio and Tennessee valleys."
For temperatures, El Niño often leads to a warmer than usual winter over the northern United States.
Typical impacts of El Niño can include:
- Stronger upper-level winds that tend to suppress storm and hurricane development in the Atlantic Basin, while weaker winds tend to enhance tropical development in the eastern and central Pacific basins.
- Stormier weather is more likely in the southern United States, with chances of both rain and snow increased during El Niño winters.
- High tide flooding could become a higher risk in parts of the United States, especially on the West Coast.
- Changes in the migration of fish and other oceanic organisms, with warm water species moving north while cold water species move farther north or into deeper waters. These behavioral changes impact growth, survival and reproduction.
- Past El Niño episodes have also enhanced the formation of harmful algal blooms along the U.S West Coast.
It's important to keep in mind that even a "very strong" El Niño does not lead to guaranteed impacts – seasonal outlooks are uncertain enough that surprises can and do happen, L'Heureux said in an email to USA TODAY.
When was the strongest El Niño event on record?
Based on NOAA's official ENSO index going back to 1950, the strongest El Niño event was in the 1982-83 winter when the Relative Oceanic Nino Index, or RONI, reached +2.5 degrees Celsius, L'Heureux said.
RONI is NOAA's new official measure of El Niño and La Niña, comparing Pacific Ocean temperatures to the rest of the tropics to better capture the climate pattern's real-world impacts in a warming world, the National Weather Service said.
Doyle Rice is a national correspondent for USA TODAY, with a focus on weather and climate.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Strengthening El Niño has its eyes on history, updated forecast says
Reporting by Doyle Rice, USA TODAY / USA TODAY
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This story was originally published July 9, 2026 at 8:01 AM.