Because Democrats call the shots, southern IL will likely lose a Republican congressman
It’s almost guaranteed that Democrats will once again draw the map that determines how southern Illinois is represented in Congress after a deadline for reforms passed this weekend.
As long as Democrats deliver a map Gov. J.B. Pritzker wants to sign into law and that follows federal requirements, the party can water down Republican influence by redrawing a conservative U.S. House district to strengthen left-leaning votes.
Changes that would have encouraged a more bipartisan map-drawing process were on the legislative agenda before COVID-19 began killing and infecting thousands. But the pandemic drew lawmaking to a halt, and anti-gerrymandering efforts died with it.
Lawmakers would have had to agree on a constitutional amendment to change redistricting rules by May 4, six months before the General Election, when voters would have weighed in.
“Redistricting reform really, truly is dead,” said Kent Redfield, a retired political science professor from the University of Illinois Springfield. “We’ll probably get the old system in which the Democrats have drawn the maps twice in a row.”
The Republican-controlled 15th Congressional District in southern Illinois is the likeliest to be eliminated after the 2020 census because of the region’s population loss.
If the 15th disappears, Democrats can draw a map that makes one of the other GOP’s downstate districts, the 12th or the 13th, more competitive. U.S. Rep. Mike Bost, R-Murphysboro, has a firm hold on the Illinois 12th District, which covers most of deep southern Illinois, though U.S. Rep. Rodney Davis, R-Taylorville, faces a close race against Democrat Betsy Dirksen Londrigan in November.
Democratic control over redrawing one of the state’s most conservative districts raises concerns among rural Republicans about the risk of losing their voice in Congress.
The only wild card is a potential delay of census results, caused by the pandemic, that could trigger the need for a redistricting commission.
If COVID-19 prevents the state general assembly from approving a map by July 1, the job would go to an eight-member commission with four Democrats and four Republicans.
If the panel can’t agree on a map, it draws a name out of a hat to decide who controls the process. Maps drawn after the 1980 and 1990 censuses were both created that way, Redfield said.
If redistricting doesn’t go to commission “never-never land,” Redfield said, the Democrats will have the power to draw a map that benefits them politically. The governor has said he will only sign a “fair map” into law, but never specified what “fair” means.
This story was originally published May 5, 2020 at 5:00 AM.
