Will concerns about COVID-19 and Madigan end Democratic rule in southwest Illinois?
Corruption and coronavirus — one tied to Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan and the other to Gov. J.B. Pritzker — are voter concerns that metro-east Republicans believe will weaken the Democratic hold on state legislative seats in November.
Voters in southwest Illinois traditionally lean Democratic because of support for organized labor. But they also have values that align with conservative candidates. The GOP is betting that the events of 2020 will tip them the other way.
“The district has changed,” said David Friess, the Republican nominee from Red Bud who is challenging incumbent Democrat Nathan Reitz of Steeleville in the 116th District. “This area is going to go Republican this time.”
Democrats have reliably represented southwestern Illinois since the early 1990s as redistricting cordoned off Republican voters to the south. Republicans now represent all of the southernmost Illinois House districts. Though metro-east voters tend to hold some Republican-aligned values such as fiscal conservatism and small government, Democrats still control the region near St. Louis.
It’s going to stay that way, Democratic incumbents from the metro-east say, because they have served the needs of their conservative-leaning constituency.
“I have a very conservative district,” said Monica Bristow, a first-term Democrat from Alton representing the 111th District. “... I am doing what my constituency wants. I’m listening to them.”
Bristow and Reitz’s districts in the northern and southern portions of the metro-east, respectively, have seen close calls in recent elections.
In 2018, Jerry Costello II won in the 116th with 53.5% of the vote against Friess’ 46.5%. Reitz succeeded Costello after he accepted a job directing a state agency, and Republicans believe it’ll be a challenge for the appointed incumbent to keep his seat. As for Bristow, she only defeated the Republican nominee by one percentage point in 2018. Both districts favored President Donald Trump in 2016.
“There is a more conservative base here and it is getting more conservative,” says House GOP leader Jim Durkin of Western Springs. “It’s a combination of dissatisfaction with Springfield and the status quo.”
But the idea that voters will flip Republican doesn’t reflect reality in her district, Bristow said.
“Maybe Durkin’s got wishful thinking.”
Connecting Democrats to Madigan
Republicans believe metro-east voters have grown weary of Chicago money influencing their representatives. Democrats say the GOP is no different.
Democratic voter dissatisfaction may have peaked this year, Durkin says, after Madigan was linked to a bribery scheme involving the largest electric utility in Illinois.
Some northern Illinois Democrats called on the speaker to resign, and metro-east GOP nominees have pledged to oppose Madigan’s “corrupt reign.” Amy Elik, an accountant from Fosterburg challenging Bristow, called for an end to Madigan’s rule in a news conference this week.
“Our state has been plagued by corruption,” said Elik, an ardent Second Amendment rights supporter and pro-life activist.
Elik says Bristow is “compromised” because of campaign contributions from two funds run by Madigan: the Democratic Party of Illinois and the Democratic Majority fund. Since July, Bristow’s reelection campaign has received $166,317 from the two funds, according to Illinois State Board of Elections data. In 2018 when she first ran for the seat, her campaign received nearly $893,000.
Bristow called the attack on contributions to her campaign “a political tactic,” and Reitz said he thinks it’s entirely appropriate for a Democrat to accept contributions from the state Democratic Party. Reitz’s campaign has received $359,410 from the two funds since July.
“I don’t think those are out of line at all,” Reitz said, “and any Republican who say they wouldn’t take donations from the Republican Party, if the circumstances were exchanged, I think they’d probably be having to look themselves in the mirror.”
The Illinois Republican Party has contributed $66,363 to Elik’s campaign in 2020 and $39,138 to Friess’. In 2018 when Friess ran against Costello, the party donated nearly $253,500.
Elik and Friess also point out that neither Bristow nor Reitz have signaled opposition to voting for Madigan as speaker next year, should he be nominated.
After a new General Assembly convenes in January, each party will nominate a candidate for speaker. Last year, Republicans nominated Durkin and Democrats nominated Madigan, who has held the post for all but two years since 1983.
Each member votes for their nominee of choice, but Democratic majorities in both the House and Senate make the result forgone.
Reitz says he plans to see who is nominated for speaker before deciding who he’ll vote for, while Bristow says she will “not vote for the Republican nominee, that’s for sure.” Neither committed to voting for or against Madigan, if he is nominated.
The speaker has not been charged with any crimes in the ongoing federal investigation.
“Right now, they’re only allegations,” Reitz said.
COVID-19 and the Illinois budget
Metro-east Democrats and Republicans alike must contend with the unabating coronavirus pandemic.
Business owners and local elected officials on both sides of the aisle have pushed back against Pritzker’s most recent restrictions on businesses to slow a resurgence of COVID-19 in southwestern Illinois.
Reitz says some restaurants and bars in his district might not be able to reopen after the state banned indoor service for the second time this year.
Another looming financial concern is the possibility of 5-10% in spending cuts across the board at state agencies. Illinois lost more than $1.1 billion in revenue during the fiscal year that ended June 30, Capitol News Illinois reported. The loss comes after lawmakers approved a $5 billion out of balance budget compared to revenue estimates for the current fiscal year.
Pritzker is counting on federal assistance to help cover the shortfall, but Durkin says unbalanced budgets don’t align with metro-east voters.
“That doesn’t play in Mascoutah. It doesn’t play in Red Bud. That doesn’t reflect this area,” Durkin said.
