One GOP governor candidate is mum on if he voted for Trump. Will it matter in the election?
When political science professor Kevin Anderson visited his mother in Arkansas earlier this month, he saw lots of yard signs for local political candidates with references to former President Donald Trump.
“I saw a sign for a local precinct committeeman saying, ‘Trump-endorsed conservative,” said Anderson, whose research at Eastern Illinois University focuses on African American politics.
Republican candidates for governor in Illinois have worked to align themselves with the former president in an effort to gain support from Trump loyalists. But one has not.
Gubernatorial candidate and Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin continues to dodge questions about his support for Trump. He pivots by saying who he voted for is “exactly what J.B. Pritzker wants to be talking about.”
But why won’t he talk about it and why are the other candidates so vocal?
Candidates in a crowded field are looking to distinguish themselves to voters, said Betsy Sinclair, a political science professor at Washington University in St. Louis who focuses on American political behavior. When the candidates are all from the same party, they can’t rely on partisanship to get votes.
The easiest short-cut for candidates to connect with voters is through endorsements or aligning themselves with prominent political figures. Trump hasn’t made an endorsement in the Illinois governor’s race ahead of the June 28 primary election, but GOP candidates Jesse Sullivan, Max Solomon, Paul Schimpf, Gary Rabine and Darren Bailey have all said they voted for him.
“(Irvin) is probably signaling that he’s a different kind of Republican,” Sinclair said.
It could be a winning strategy in Illinois, where President Joe Biden won in 2020 with 57.5% of the vote, Anderson said.
“I kind of understood it Arkansas because President Trump remains incredibly popular there. So, it would make sense that it would be advantageous to candidates,” Anderson said. “If you’re thinking long-term, like, ‘I’ve got to get to the General Election. I’ve got to go after J.B. Pritzker,’ Trump probably doesn’t help very much.”
Tom McRae is a Republican voter in Madison County and also the county’s circuit clerk. While McRae is “still kind of on the fence,” he said one of the most important factors to him in a candidate is if they can beat incumbent Gov. J.B. Pritzker. If they share most of his conservative views, that will suffice.
“I think Illinois needs a new governor,” McRae said. “I’m going to size up the candidates and vote for whoever shares the majority of my values and can beat J.B. Pritzker in the fall.”
Voters usually go for the candidate who’s closest to them on the political spectrum, but when candidates all seem too similar, voters also think about who’s likeliest to win. That means they’re paying attention to straw polls and who their peers say they’ll vote for.
“It’s an easy decision if there are only two candidates. You’ll vote for the candidate in a primary who you thought was going to be the most palatable and also win in the General Election,” Sinclair said. “But when there’s multiple candidates, different decisions come into play. ... They’re not only looking for traits. They’re looking for viability.”
Banking on Trump such as Bailey has done might work in some places where the former president won wide margins and continues to have broad support. In Wayne County east of Mt. Vernon, Trump won the 2020 presidential election with nearly 85% of the vote — the highest in the state. In Madison County he won 55.4% and in St. Clair County, traditionally a Democratic bastion, Trump won 44.6%.
Whether Irvin voted for Trump matters to Illinoisans who support the former president, Schimpf said at a debate hosted by NBC Chicago, according to Capitol News Illinois. Irvin dodged the question about who he voted for at the debate.
“What I think voters are looking for is simply candidates that are going to answer questions and this is not a tough question,” Schimpf said following Irvin’s response. “I voted for President Trump. … I wish he had done some things differently. But I do not regret that vote. He was a better choice than Joe Biden.”
Trump will be important in June, McRae said.
“I think Trump’s going to play a big role in the primary,” McRae said. “There are a lot of Trump loyalists who will appeal to primary voters. It plays a real role and I’m sure that is a concern to the Irvin campaign.”
Yet, Anderson said, Trump might not have as much of an impact on suburban voters, where he won with smaller margins or lost to Biden. Leaving Trump out of it might work to gain favor in those populous areas, especially as candidates such as Bailey criticize Chicago. Bailey called the city “a crime-ridden, corrupt, dysfunctional hellhole” in a recent debate.
Irvin, who is Black, might also be able to sway some Black voters by avoiding the Trump factor, Anderson said.
“You might not like the Democratic nominee but you’re not going to vote for the Republicans,” Anderson said. “Irvin may be playing that kind of a game. Trump doesn’t help me in the General Election, but I’ve got enough money to stand out in the primary.”
Irvin does have money. Illinois billionaire hedge fund manager Ken Griffin contributed $45 million to his campaign.
Yet inconsistencies in Irvin’s campaign could hurt him in the primary when it comes to Trump. Reporting by the Chicago television station WTTW revealed text messages from Irvin calling Trump a “bigot” and “racist.” Irvin has said he doesn’t recall sending the text messages. Campaign controversies such as that might matter in a primary election where voters are more informed and engaged, Anderson said.
But come the General Election on Nov. 8, voters will likely be paying more attention to whether a candidate is a Republican or Democrat.
“People are not always very interested in politics,” Sinclair said. “The challenge for candidates is to communicate quickly and effectively.”
This story was originally published May 27, 2022 at 6:00 AM.
