Which Democrat will Southern Illinois choose to challenge Trump? Voters weigh in.
It’s difficult to know what the field of Democratic presidential candidates will look like by March 17, when Illinois’ spot comes up on the primary calendar.
Twenty-four states will have held their primaries and caucuses by then, including 14 slated for Super Tuesday on March 3. A few of the eight contenders may well be out of the race by then.
But Illinois’ 184 delegates could still be consequential for the surviving contenders. Voters could throw a life line to a campaign on the edge, or help a frontrunner lengthen a lead.
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is the top choice among Democratic voters statewide, according to a new poll by The Paul Simon Public Policy Institute in Carbondale. Critics of the poll said it did not properly weigh demographics or the ratio of Chicago and downstate voters, but the institute said it stands by the results.
Sanders was also the favorite of downstate voters with 23% saying they’d vote for him. The poll defines downstate as anywhere outside Chicago, its suburbs and the collar counties of DuPage, Will, Kane, McHenry and Lake.
Former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg came in second with 17% of downstate supporters followed by former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg with 15% and former Vice President Joe Biden with 10%.
Republican downstate voters, on the other hand, are united in their support for President Donald Trump, with 93% ready to renominate him. In Chicago his support is at 75% among Republican voters.
‘I’ll vote for whoever is against Trump’
John Rule, a 66-year-old retired teacher from Smithton, says he plans to support Bloomberg despite the billionaire’s poor performance at his first debate earlier this month.
“I had a little question about him when I saw his first debate,” Rule said, “but I think he has the best chance of beating Trump.”
Unlike other candidates, Bloomberg has spent heavily in Southern Illinois and the St. Louis region on television and social media advertising. He is the only candidate who has opened an office in Belleville, one of a planned 14 statewide.
But Biden has picked up support from metro-east Democrats, including state Sen. Christopher Belt, D-Cahokia, state Rep. LaToya Greenwood, D-East St. Louis, and state Rep. Jay Hoffman, D-Swansea.
“Vice President Biden has a vision for our country,” Greenwood said in a statement. “He is a proven leader and will focus on rebuilding America by building a stronger middle class and lifting up the least of those amongst us. His record of accomplishments and experience prove that he is ready to be our next president of the United States.”
Meantime, Sanders’ campaign plans to open an office in Carbondale, home of Southern Illinois University. In 2016, he enjoyed strong support from students on his way to garnering nearly half of Illinois’ popular vote just behind Hillary Clinton.
“Sanders has a good organization in place,” said Kent Redfield, a retired political scientist from the University of Illinois Springfield. “The question is if Biden has made a comeback (by March 17), then will the moderate or party Democrats be more likely to be backing Biden?”
SIU Carbondale law student Courtney Young, 22, said she hopes Buttigieg secures the nomination.
“I think he’s the probably the most qualified candidate,” said Young, chair of the Young Democrats of Franklin County. “He’s very intelligent, well-spoken and I think he’d interact well with international leaders.”
Young said a solid contingent of students support Sanders and Biden, but students in the law school talk skeptically about Bloomberg.
“I can’t tell if he’s in the race to do good or if he’s just, for lack of a better term, in it for a pissing contest with Trump,” Young said.
Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar face a challenge gaining ground, Redfield added, though Warren has built some campaign infrastructure in the state.
Hedge fund manager and philanthropist Tom Steyer has spent a minimal amount in Southern Illinois and remains far behind despite polling well among black voters. U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii didn’t have a discernible presence downstate ahead of the primary.
Democratic voters say they’ll cast their ballots for whichever candidate wins the nomination.
“If something were to happen to Buttigieg,” Young said, “I would vote for whoever picks up the nomination.”
Rule, the retired teacher, agrees.
“I’m hoping (Bloomberg) will make it,” Rule said, “but I’ll vote for whoever is against Trump.”
