Rain, ice and snow headed for southwest Illinois. Here’s the latest forecast

A mix of rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow appear headed for the metro-east Wednesday night into Thursday.

Jayson Gosselin, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service of St. Louis, said Wednesday morning rain will move into the metro-east area Wednesday night and continue through at least Thursday morning, dumping 2 to 2 1/2 inches.

While the region remains under a flood watch, Gosselin does not expect any major flooding.

“I’m not sure we’re going to have the heavy rains that cause flash flooding. The rain will be longer in duration, causing slower rises in creeks and streams,” he said. “The good news is the soil is not frozen and river levels are low. We might see some spotty river flooding and low spots on roads could be a problem — anywhere where water tends to collect. But I don’t think we’ll have widespread, major issues.”

Goesselin expressed minor concern about the ground already being saturated from melted snow.

“It does concern us to a degree,” he said. “You’re going to get a little more runoff than had it been drier the last seven to 10 days, but that is accounted for in our models. That will be a contributing factor to the runoff we see.”

Goesslin said the rain likely will wrap up early Thursday morning and then transition to freezing rain somewhere between 11 a.m. and 2 p.m., “depending on how fast the cold air arrives.” The freezing rain then will change to sleet and end as some light snow in the late afternoon/early evening Thursday.

He said the area likely will see approximately 0.10 of an inch of ice and up to an inch of sleet/snow. While those amounts are not significant — and not likely enough to produce power outages — Goesslin said they still bring some risks to travel.

“The temperatures will keep dropping Thursday and eventually fall into the mid-20s,” he said. “Even though it’s been warm and it’s going to rain a lot, that’s going to lead to widespread problems on roadways. The roads will be ice and sleet covered — not good.”

Specifically, Goesslin is concerned about rush hour.

“It doesn’t take a lot on the roadways with those temperatures to cause major issues,” he said. “I’m kind of concerned with the afternoon/evening rush hour. That’s not a good mix when everyone is trying to go home at the same time.”

The National Weather Service recommends keeping plugged into the forecast as it develops, www.weather.gov.