Will IL see a ‘great chill down’ this fall? What Farmer’s Almanac, forecasters expect
Metro-east residents may experience a soggy fall this year, according to meteorologists, who expect more precipitation in the region.
The popular Farmers’ Almanac says it might be an especially chilly autumn, too.
Residents of southwestern Illinois and St. Louis have about a 33% to 40% chance of seeing above-normal precipitation from August to October, according to the National Weather Service, and chances are about equal for below- or above-normal temperatures.
Here’s what to know about fall weather, including a prediction from the Farmers’ Almanac and data from meteorologists with the NWS.
Typical fall weather in Belleville, St. Louis
The NWS St. Louis office provides monthly climate data from 1991 to 2020. Here’s what to know about average fall weather in Belleville and St. Louis.
Belleville in August:
Average minimum temperature: 65.3 degrees
Average maximum temperature: 89.1 degrees
Average overall temperature: 77.2 degrees
Total normal precipitation: 3.92 inches
Belleville in September:
Average minimum temperature: 65.3 degrees
Average maximum temperature: 89.1 degrees
Average overall temperature: 70.1 degrees
Total normal precipitation: 3.35 inches
Belleville in October:
Average minimum temperature: 46.7 degrees
Average maximum temperature: 72.6 degrees
Average overall temperature: 59.7 degrees
Total normal precipitation: 3.12 inches
Belleville in November:
Average minimum temperature: 36.9 degrees
Average maximum temperature: 58.1 degrees
Average overall temperature: 47.5 degrees
Total normal precipitation: 3.6 inches
St. Louis in August:
Average minimum temperature: 69.3 degrees
Average maximum temperature: 88.3 degrees
Average overall temperature: 78.8 degrees
Total normal precipitation: 3.38 inches
St. Louis in September:
Average minimum temperature: 60.9 degrees
Average maximum temperature: 81.1 degrees
Average overall temperature: 71 degrees
Total normal precipitation: 2.96 inches
St. Louis in October:
Average minimum temperature: 49.1 degrees
Average maximum temperature: 69.2 degrees
Average overall temperature: 59.1 degrees
Total normal precipitation: 3.15 inches
St. Louis in November:
Average minimum temperature: 37.4 degrees
Average maximum temperature: 55.5 degrees
Average overall temperature: 46.5 degrees
Total normal precipitation: 3.42 inches
The average temperature in St. Clair County last August was 76.9 degrees, according to data from the National Centers for Environmental Information.
Here’s more on average temperatures in St. Clair County:
Note: This graphic will automatically update as new data becomes available.
Farmers’ Almanac fall predictions
The almanac forecasts “cooler and drier weather” across the U.S. this fall, with colder temperatures in November and December.
The Farmers’ Almanac’s Extended Fall Forecast 2023 predicts Illinois residents will experience a “great chill down” and “rainy & snowy” weather this autumn, while Missouri will see temperatures “trending colder” with “above normal precipitation.”
Most areas will see below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation this autumn, according to the almanac’s prediction.
The organization makes predictions based on a mysterious formula that considers factors such as planetary positioning, sunspot activity and tidal action of the moon.
“The only person who knows the exact formula is the Farmers’ Almanac weather prognosticator who goes by the pseudonym of Caleb Weatherbee,” the organization’s website says. “To protect this proprietary formula, the editors of the Farmers’ Almanac prefer to keep both Caleb’s true identity and the formula a closely guarded brand secret.”
The Farmers’ Almanac has provided extended forecasts since 1818, according to its website.
This story was originally published August 3, 2023 at 11:14 AM.
