Will the metro-east see a white Christmas this year? What Farmers’ Almanac predicts
Christmas is less than a month away, and we’ve entered an El Niño pattern, which typically brings warmer and drier-than-usual weather to southwestern Illinois and the Midwest.
But the weather pattern could last multiple years, and it doesn’t necessarily mean metro-east residents will see warm and dry weather all winter.
Here’s what the Farmers’ Almanac predicts for weather in Illinois and Missouri this Christmas, along with a seasonal outlook from the National Weather Service.
Farmers’ Almanac prediction
The Farmers’ Almanac has released a Christmas forecast for 2023, including weather predictions for Dec. 24 to Dec. 27. Illinois is in the almanac’s Zone 2, along with Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Kentucky and Wisconsin.
Here’s what the Farmers’ Almanac predicts for Christmas weather in Zone 2: “Looks like any wintry precipitation comes to an end bringing clear skies for holiday events.”
Missouri is in Zone 4, with Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Wyoming and Montana. For Zone 4, the almanac says it’s “looking good for a White Christmas! Possible heavy snow in Colorado and over the Plains just in time to set the mood for the holiday.”
The Farmers’ Almanac makes predictions based on a mysterious formula that considers factors such as planetary positioning, sunspot activity and tidal action of the moon.
“The only person who knows the exact formula is the Farmers’ Almanac weather prognosticator who goes by the pseudonym of Caleb Weatherbee,” the organization’s website says. “To protect this proprietary formula, the editors of the Farmers’ Almanac prefer to keep both Caleb’s true identity and the formula a closely guarded brand secret.”
The almanac has provided extended forecasts since 1818, according to its website.
National Weather Service forecast
As for the traditional weather outlook, the National Weather Service reports the metro-east and St. Louis region has a 40% to 50% chance of seeing above-normal temperatures from December to February.
The region has roughly equal chances of seeing above- or below-normal precipitation for the three-month period, according to the NWS.
The metro-east and St. Louis area has an 11% to 25% historical probability of a white Christmas, according to weather service data from 1981 to 2010.
The NWS typically releases more detailed forecasts a week at a time.
This story was originally published November 28, 2023 at 11:13 AM.
