Near-record heat, then possible snow in metro-east forecast. Here’s what you can expect
While southwestern Illinois and St. Louis area residents have seen temperatures “well above normal” in the past few days, this week’s forecast includes arctic air and the possibility of snow, as well as severe thunderstorms.
Belleville’s high temperature Tuesday will be around 77 degrees Fahrenheit, the National Weather Service St. Louis office reports, while the St. Louis climate site, which is the nearest climate site to Belleville, should have a high around 82 degrees, nearing the 85-degree local high temperature record for Feb. 27.
“We are coming relatively close. When you think about the normal high for this time of year in St. Louis is 49, that we’re getting even into the 80s means it’s going to be very, very warm tomorrow,” NWS St. Louis meteorologist Melissa Mainhart told the News-Democrat Monday.
The low will then likely drop to just below freezing in Belleville Tuesday night and continue to get colder Wednesday, with a low around 24 degrees.
“So we’re looking at a 50-degree temperature drop between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning,” Mainhart said.
Belleville has about a 15% chance of seeing snow in the early morning Wednesday, Mainhart said, while the likelihood is 30% in the broader St. Louis area. It is unlikely snow will accumulate in southwestern Illinois or St. Louis, Mainhart said, though metal surfaces may see some snow sticking around for a bit.
As the cold front approaches after such unseasonably warm weather, Mainhart said there is a potential for thunderstorms to develop Tuesday night, and some may be strong or severe.
The main hazards metro-east and St. Louis area residents can expect from the storms are damaging winds and quarter-sized hail, Mainhart continued. An earlier NWS forecast mentioned the possibility of isolated tornadoes for Tuesday, but Mainhart said her confidence in tornado development is fairly low due to dry air.
St. Clair County is among several counties in the St. Louis region under a hazardous weather outlook as the area is under “critical fire danger” Monday, as well as the threat of severe thunderstorms Tuesday.
“If a fire were to start, it would easily become out of control,” Mainhart said.
A red flag warning is in effect in St. Louis County and farther west as of Monday, but St. Clair County is not under the warning.
Mainhart recommended people review their safety plans as we approach spring and keep in mind damaging winds are dangerous even without tornadoes. Residents should immediately seek shelter upon hearing thunder, Mainhart continued, and stay away from windows when hail or damaging winds are in the forecast.
