Will La Nina bring snow to southwest Illinois? Here’s the latest outlook from forecasters
Meteorological winter begins in less than six weeks, following a warmer than usual fall in the metro-east and much drier October than normal.
The popular Farmers’ Almanac predicts it will be a cold season with average snowfall in southwest Illinois, but what do meteorologists forecast, and how might La Niña affect the season?
The National Weather Service St. Louis office forecast calls for a chance of rain and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday, potentially providing some slight relief to a drier than usual month, but it may not be enough to bring precipitation totals up to normal.
It’s been more than 20 days since the St. Louis and metro-east area has seen at least 0.01 inches of rain, NWS St. Louis office meteorologist Molly Gerhardt said in a Tuesday interview with the BND.
Here’s what to know about this winter’s forecast in southwestern Illinois.
Farmers’ Almanac winter weather prediction
The Farmers’ Almanac predicts a “wet winter whirlwind” across the U.S. this year, with “rapid-fire storms” bringing rain and snow. The almanac prediction expects cold weather and average snowfall in the metro-east, with northeast Illinois in the “cold, wet & white” zone.
The organization makes predictions based on a mysterious formula that considers factors such as planetary positioning, sunspot activity and tidal action of the moon.
“The only person who knows the exact formula is the Farmers’ Almanac weather prognosticator who goes by the pseudonym of Caleb Weatherbee,” the organization’s website says. “To protect this proprietary formula, the editors of the Farmers’ Almanac prefer to keep both Caleb’s true identity and the formula a closely guarded brand secret.”
The Farmers’ Almanac has provided extended predictions since 1818, according to its website.
National Weather Service winter forecast
We’re now in what’s referred to as a neutral weather pattern, but there’s a 60% chance of a weak La Niña pattern emerging through November, Gerhardt said.
The terms El Niño and La Niña refer to climate patterns determined by tradewinds and water temperatures. La Niña can bring extreme weather, but forecasters expect this pattern to be weaker than usual.
Because the overall pattern will be weaker, there will be more variability from system to system locally, Gerdardt said.
“It will really depend on individual weather systems as they come through,” Gerhardt said.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s three-month outlook says the metro-east has a 33% to 40% chance of above-normal temperatures from November through January and roughly equal chances of below-, above- and near-normal precipitation.
The average first frost in Belleville is Oct. 8, according to the NWS, while the average first freeze is Oct. 14 and the typical first hard freeze is Oct. 26. NWS St. Louis office lead meteorologist Matt Beitscher told the BND in a Wednesday call the agency doesn’t have an average first snowfall date for Belleville specifically, but the average first snowfall in St. Louis is Dec. 4 each year.
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