Will the metro-east see a white Christmas this year? What to know about the chance of snow
Christmas is just two weeks away, and after heavy snow following Thanksgiving, metro-east residents may be wondering if they’ll see a snowy winter holiday.
The average low temperature for Dec. 25 in the Belleville area is 25 degrees Fahrenheit, National Weather Service St. Louis office meteorologist Jon Carney said in a Dec. 11 interview with the News-Democrat, while the average high temperature that day is 40 degrees.
Belleville has some warmer temperatures in the forecast, with highs in the 50s expected Saturday, Dec. 14 through Monday, Dec. 16.
“It doesn’t look too favorable for any kind of snow in the next seven days,” Carney said.
Those hoping for a white Christmas locally may be disappointed, as Carney said the historical probability is about 20%. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration defines a white Christmas as at least 1 inch of snow on the ground Dec. 25. The St. Louis area last saw a white Christmas in 2022, KSDK reported.
Belleville receives an average of 2.61 inches of precipitation in December, according to data from NOAA, and normal temperatures typically range from 28.3 to 46.3 degrees on a December day locally.
Carney said the Belleville area has received about 0.4 inches less snow than usual so far this month.
The Climate Prediction Center reports the St. Louis and metro-east region has roughly equal chances of above- or below-normal temperatures and precipitation from December to February.
What does the Farmers’ Almanac predict?
The popular Farmers’ Almanac has released its white Christmas predictions for the year, which covers Tuesday, Dec. 24 to Friday, Dec. 27.
The almanac reports Illinois and surrounding states will see sunshine, cold and dry weather for the holiday. The almanac’s map predicts some northeastern states will see a white Christmas, but most of the nation will not.
The Farmers’ Almanac makes predictions based on a mysterious formula that considers factors such as planetary positioning, sunspot activity and tidal action of the moon.
“The only person who knows the exact formula is the Farmers’ Almanac weather prognosticator who goes by the pseudonym of Caleb Weatherbee,” the organization’s website says. “To protect this proprietary formula, the editors of the Farmers’ Almanac prefer to keep both Caleb’s true identity and the formula a closely guarded brand secret.”
The almanac has provided extended predictions since 1818, according to its website.
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