How long will ‘false fall,’ cool weather last in metro-east? See latest forecast
Belleville residents are enjoying temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than what’s typical for this time of year, but is the cooler weather here to stay?
The forecast for Belleville calls for temperatures to stay below normal for August, but some 90-degree days may return in September.
“We’ll probably see 90 at least a couple more days this year. That’s by no means a guarantee,” NWS St. Louis office meteorologist Ben Herzog said in a Tuesday interview with the News-Democrat.
It will likely take a bit longer for the autumnal weather to become consistent. Meteorological fall begins Monday, Sept. 1 and runs through the end of November, although astronomical fall won’t begin until the Monday, Sept. 22 autumn equinox.
“October is when it can be a pretty safe bet that we’re gonna really be entrenched into those more fall-like temperatures,” Herzog said.
“False fall” is a term often used to describe short breaks in summer heat before the seasonal weather pattern truly changes longterm. Under this definition, Belleville and St. Louis area residents are experiencing a “false fall” in late August.
What’s the weather forecast in Belleville?
The weather service’s Climate Prediction Center released its latest three-month seasonal outlooks Aug. 21, and it looks like the metro-east may see above-normal temperatures.
“It looks like it could be, relatively speaking, a warm and kind of dry fall,” Herzog said.
The seasonal outlook for September through November reports the metro-east has a 40 to 50% chance of seeing above-normal temperatures and equal chances of above- or below-normal precipitation, though deep southern Illinois has a slight chance of below-normal precipitation.
Here’s an overview of the week’s forecast for Belleville, from the NWS, as of Aug. 26:
- Wednesday, Aug. 27: Temperatures ranging from 58 to 81 degrees, with increasing clouds and light wind.
- Thursday, Aug. 28: Temperatures from 57 to 81 degrees, with mostly sunny and clear skies.
- Friday, Aug. 29: Temperatures from 57 to 82 degrees, with sunny skies during the day and partly cloudy conditions at night.
- Saturday, Aug. 30: Temperatures from 58 to 80 degrees, with sunny skies during the day and partly cloudy conditions at night.
- Sunday, Aug. 31: Temperatures from 57 to 82 degrees, with mostly sunny and clear skies.
- Labor Day: Sunny skies with a high temperature of about 84 degrees.
AccuWeather provides extended forecasts further out than the NWS does, and the forecasting company predicts the hottest temperatures in September will be shy of 90 degrees, at 87.
While temperatures are expected to cool as Halloween approaches, AccuWeather reports early October will still see a few days with high temperatures in the low 80s.
July and August brought multiple heat waves with dangerously hot conditions to the metro-east and St. Louis. Herzog said some of those hot periods lasted a little longer than usual, though heat waves are generally common in the region in summer.
August has seen less rainfall than typical so far, Herzog said, and there’s no widespread rain in the near forecast. However, slivers of central and southeast Missouri may see some precipitation Wednesday night and Thursday.
Do you have a question about the weather in Illinois for our service journalism team? We’d like to hear from you. Fill out our Metro-east Matters form below.
