Is Illinois in for a ‘very cold,’ snowy winter? Here’s what the almanacs predict
While meteorological fall has just begun, some Illinois residents are already looking ahead to this winter’s forecast to make plans for travel or favorite seasonal activities.
The metro-east and St. Louis region is relatively unlikely to see a White Christmas, based on historical data, but does typically see nearly 11 inches of total precipitation from November to February.
A La Niña weather pattern could possibly emerge in the coming months, and La Niña can make Midwest winters wetter than normal.
Here’s what to know heading into this winter, including forecast information from the National Weather Service and predictions from the Farmers’ Almanac and Old Farmer’s Almanac.
How could La Niña affect this winter in Illinois?
The short answer is, a potential La Niña pattern this winter is unlikely to have a strong effect on metro-east weather.
“A La Niña watch is now in effect for this upcoming winter season,” Alex Elmore, meteorologist with the National Weather Service St. Louis office, said in a Sept. 5 interview with the News-Democrat.
The terms El Niño and La Niña refer to climate patterns determined by tradewinds and water temperatures. We are currently in what is called an ENSO-neutral state, according to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center.
While the conditions forming indicate a possible La Niña weather pattern this winter, we are not currently in a La Niña pattern, and it’s uncertain whether one will develop, Elmore said. If La Niña does develop, Elmore continued, it will likely be relatively weak and won’t have a strong influence on local weather in the metro-east.
It’s a little too early to determine with certainty whether this winter will be colder or warmer than usual and if the region will see below- or above-average precipitation, Elmore said.
However, the Climate Prediction Center provides a three-month seasonal outlook, which was last updated Aug. 21. The outlook shows the metro-east has a 33 to 40% chance of above-normal temperatures from November to January, with a 33 to 40% chance of above-normal precipitation.
What does the Farmers’ Almanac predict?
The Farmers’ Almanac prediction calls for “dramatic swings and widespread wintry weather” across the U.S. in the upcoming winter season.
The almanac’s 2025 to 2026 winter weather outlook predicts the metro-east will see “very cold” and “snowy” conditions throughout the season.
The organization makes predictions based on a mysterious formula that considers factors such as planetary positioning, sunspot activity and tidal action of the moon.
“The only person who knows the exact formula is the Farmers’ Almanac weather prognosticator who goes by the pseudonym of Caleb Weatherbee,” the organization’s website says. “To protect this proprietary formula, the editors of the Farmers’ Almanac prefer to keep both Caleb’s true identity and the formula a closely guarded brand secret.”
The Farmers’ Almanac has provided extended forecasts since 1818, according to its website.
What about the Old Farmer’s Almanac forecast?
The Old Farmer’s Almanac, a separate publication from the Farmers’ Almanac, predicts southern Illinois will have a “cold, dry” winter in 2025 to 2026.
“Don’t lose track of your snow shovels and umbrellas,” Old Farmer’s Almanac editor Carol Connare said in the forecast. “Most areas will experience near-normal to slightly milder temperatures, but from the Appalachians south through the Southeast and Florida, and westward across the Ohio Valley, we’re predicting a colder-than-normal winter.”
The Old Farmer’s Almanac was founded in 1792 and uses solar science, climatology and meteorology to make its predictions, the organization’s website reports. The Old Farmer’s Almanac’s formula is “secret,” and stems from its original formula devised by founder Robert B. Thomas.
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