How powerful will the weekend winter storm be in the metro-east? See latest forecast
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- National Weather Service forecasts accumulating snow and bitter cold this weekend.
- Local offices assign 80 to 90% odds of at least one inch in southwest Illinois.
- Forecasters warn wind chills below minus 10 and travel impacts possible.
Note: Wednesday afternoon, the National Weather Service St. Louis office expanded the winter storm watch northward to include St. Clair County, St. Louis and surrounding areas. The watch is in effect late Friday night through Sunday morning.
Metro-east residents are likely to see bitterly cold temperatures, brutal wind chills and accumulating snow this weekend, but will conditions qualify as a “winter storm?”
A “significant winter storm” will produce heavy snow, sleet and freezing rain from the Southern Rockies/Plains, Mid-South and East Coast between Friday, Jan. 23 and Sunday, Jan. 25, according to the National Weather Service.
Locally, southwestern Illinois has an 80 to 90% chance of seeing at least 1 inch of accumulating snow, Marshall Pfahler, meteorologist with the National Weather Service St. Louis office, told the News-Democrat Wednesday, Jan. 21.
There’s some uncertainty about exact timing for the expected snowfall, Pfahler said, but it seems most likely around the evening hours Saturday, Jan. 24 through Sunday morning.
Before the arctic air and snow move in, most of Thursday, Jan. 22 is expected to be mild, with a high of 38 degrees Fahrenheit in Belleville, but temperatures will quickly drop overnight, with Friday’s expected to range from 2 to 16 degrees. Wind chills will be much colder, though.
“We’re looking at probabilities of 60 to 70% for wind chills below minus 10 Friday night into Saturday morning,” Pfahler said.
As for snowfall, Pfahler said it’s more a question of how much snow will fall rather than if snow will fall at all. Possibilities range from an inch or 2 of accumulation on the low end to winter storm criteria on the high end.
“We’re getting closer, but there’s still plenty of time for some forecast adjustments between now and then. But confidence is definitely increasing that we’ll see enough snow for impacts across the area, especially with how cold it’ll be, the snow will have a much easier time sticking to roads and impacting travel,” Pfahler said.
The NWS office issues a winter storm warning when the forecast calls for 5 or more inches of snowfall, Pfahler continued, and that’s within the realm of possibilities in the metro-east this weekend, though not guaranteed.
The weather service has issued a winter storm watch for counties farther south in Illinois and in southeast Missouri, excluding the metro-east and St. Louis area. Forecasters report there’s a 50 to 60% of at least 5 inches of snow in that southern region under the winter storm watch.
“It’s likely that we’ll see that winter storm watch expanded in some capacity northward, I’m not sure if it’ll go all the way into the St. Louis metro,” Pfahler said.
The metro-east and greater St. Louis region could see temperatures about 28 degrees colder than normal over the weekend, but it’s not expected to be record-breaking cold. Saturday’s low temperature record for St. Louis is 7 degrees below zero, and temperatures are expected to be closer to 8 to 13 degrees that day, though it’s still considered “dangerous” cold.
Winter weather safety tips
Metro-east and St. Louis residents should limit time outdoors this weekend, Pfahler said, and dress in layers and limit exposed skin when going outdoors. It’s also a good idea to make sure you have extra gas and drinking water in your vehicle when venturing out, in case you get caught in the snow.
Warming sites are available in St. Clair County when temperatures are 15 degrees or colder or wind chills are expected to be 15 degrees below zero. For help finding a warming center near you, call the United Way at 211.
The Humane Society of Missouri recommends people also take precautions to protect their pets in extreme winter weather, including bringing them inside and limiting time outdoors to prevent frostbite, being aware of antifreeze, cleaning off your pet’s paws and looking out for warning signs of hypothermia.
A southern Illinois dog was recently found dead outdoors during dangerously cold temperatures, and Franklin County Animal Control officials advised residents animals should not be left outside for more than 15 minutes in very cold weather.
Do you have a question about the weather or the environment in the metro-east or Illinois for the News-Democrat? We’d like to hear from you. Fill out our Metro-east Matters form below.
This story was originally published January 21, 2026 at 1:12 PM.
