Warm, dry spring or rainy season for the metro-east? What this year’s outlook says
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Climate Prediction Center forecasts equal odds for below‑ or above‑normal spring temps.
- CPC gives southwest Illinois a 40–50% chance of above‑normal precipitation.
- NWS St. Louis warns rising spring severe‑weather risk; plan multiple warning methods.
Metro-east residents can expect temperatures as warm as 73 degrees Fahrenheit in the coming days, although winter is not over yet.
Meteorological spring begins Sunday, March 1, while astronomical spring officially begins with the spring equinox Friday, March 20. Temperatures warm in the spring each year, but significant snowfall is still possible into March, with lingering flakes sometimes seen in April.
The National Weather Service’s St. Louis office forecasts a slight chance of thunderstorms, with the possibility of some near Belleville becoming severe, Thursday afternoon and evening.
“Not only on Thursday, but as they go through the spring months, there’ll be that increasing chance for severe weather throughout the spring,” Mark Britt, meteorologist with the NWS St. Louis office, told the News-Democrat Tuesday.
It’s important for people to have multiple ways to receive weather warnings and to make a plan whether you are at home or work for where to go if severe weather hits, Britt continued.
Additionally, there’s potential for record-breaking warmth this week, particularly Wednesday.
Here’s what to know about this spring’s forecast, with information from the NWS, as well as an outlook from the popular Old Farmer’s Almanac.
Metro-east spring weather forecast
The NWS’ Climate Prediction Center forecasts equal chances of below- or above-normal temperatures statewide in Illinois from February through April, although it may be a rainy season in the metro-east.
Southwest Illinois has a 40 to 50% chance of above-normal precipitation through April, the CPC forecast reads. Typical monthly precipitation totals in Belleville are 3.44 inches in March, 4.9 inches in April and 5.05 inches in May, according to NWS data from 1991 to 2020.
In a typical spring, Belleville residents can expect temperatures ranging from roughly 36 to 59 degrees in March, 46 to 70 degrees in April and 56 to 79 degrees in May.
What does the Old Farmer’s Almanac predict?
If you’re looking for an outlook from a popular alternative publication, the Old Farmer’s Almanac has issued its spring 2026 weather predictions for the U.S.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac forecasts the metro-east and southern Illinois will see a “warm, dry” spring this year.
“In April and May, the region will experience above-average temperatures. Precipitation will be above normal in the east and below normal in the west,” the Old Farmer’s Almanac’s prediction for the Ohio Valley or Region 7, which includes the metro-east.
The metro-east is situated near the almanac’s regional boundary — St. Louis received a different outlook for the season, with a “warm, wet” spring expected.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac issues longer-range predictions compared to some traditional forecasters, such as those with the NWS. The almanac was founded in 1792 and uses a “secret weather formula” employing solar science, climatology and meteorology to develop its forecasts.
Do you have a question about the weather or the environment in Illinois for the News-Democrat? We’d like to hear from you. Fill out our Metro-east Matters form below.
