Here are six factors that could affect the outcome of the St. Louis Cardinals’ season
What once seemed unthinkable and then was perpetually in doubt is now reality - the St. Louis Cardinals will play regular season baseball in 2020, and that season begins today.
A long stretch of 162 games is now a 60-game sprint. More than one Cardinals official this summer has referred to that stretch as almost like an extended playoffs; there’s little room for error and even less for recovery.
With that in mind, here are three variables that could break in the Cardinals’ collective favor over a short stretch and three more that might prove fatal to their quest for a 12th World Series championship, attached asterisk or no.
IN FAVOR - Kwang Hyun Kim dominates
The Cardinals settled their starting log jam by reinstating Carlos Martínez to the rotation and moving Korean import Kwang Hyun Kim to the back of the bullpen. Kim has never been a full-time closer; in fact, he laughed on Tuesday night when asked about his experience there. He was, however, one of Korea’s best pitchers for more than a decade, and has added velocity and control since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2017.
Kim looked unhittable Wednesday, breezing through the Kansas City Royals on two strikeouts looking and one swinging. His fastball touched 94 miles per hour and his curveball dragged through 67. If he can maintain that sort of pitch diversity, he can be a lot to handle in short bursts.
OPPOSED - Carlos Martínez struggles
Martínez has been a dominant pitcher over stretches of his career, twice making the All-Star team as a starter. His ceiling is below only Jack Flaherty’s in terms of potential results, and by a much smaller margin than may appear at first glance. He spoke Wednesday about his renewed focus and feeling as though he now has control of his arm. “When I need to put some gasoline on my arm, I can do it,” he explained.
Still, it’s been two full years since he started at all, and the end of the 2017 season was the last time he flashed that early game dominance. Martínez’s focus has on occasion waned with his health. Shoulders are tricky, and his was operated on as recently as this past off-season. If he slips and other options are tuned up only for the bullpen, the Cardinals may struggle to cover those innings.
IN FAVOR - Dylan Carlson is as good as they hope
Carlson, as expected, will break camp without a place on the 30-man roster. That’s a consequence of economics at least as much as it is his play, as he showed off the ability to play a competent centerfield while displaying strong plate discipline and a composure beyond his 21 years.
Manager Mike Shildt is likely to file a lineup on Friday that includes his three outfielders (Tyler O’Neill, Dexter Fowler, Harrison Bader) hitting seventh, eighth and ninth in the batting order. For a team that’s confident in its pitching depth but defensive of its hitters, that could portend offensive struggles. Carlson is better equipped than any other player in the organization to arrive and provide a potentially necessary boost.
OPPOSED - They might not find out until it’s too late
Fowler is in the fourth year of a five-year contract that makes him one of the team’s highest paid players. He’s also one of its most respected in the clubhouse and is central to the ongoing conversations about social justice that are being conducted in concert with The Players Alliance. He also rebounded strongly in 2019, posting a career high in home runs, though he did taper off in the postseason.
Bader is an elite defender who has to show that his inability to lay off breaking balls outside is a correctable, rather than fatal, flaw. O’Neill has been knocking on the door of the majors for some time, and the Cardinals are hesitant to allow Carlson to shove him off the doorstep. Austin Dean and Lane Thomas will also receive opportunities, and as a result, Carlson’s debut may be more delayed than necessary. If the Cardinals struggle out of the gate, it may be hard for him to help.
IN FAVOR - The Pirates, Royals and Tigers
Pittsburgh, Kansas City and Detroit combined to finish 135 games below .500 in 2019, and none of the three improved by any appreciable margin in the off-season. Indeed, the Pirates and Royals may have gotten worse, as they each struggle to cobble together a starting rotation.
Twenty of the Cardinals’ 60 scheduled games - a full third - are against those three teams. If the Cardinals can manage to win 13 of those 20 games and play .500 baseball against the rest of their opponents, they’ll go 33-27. In a typical season, that would put them on pace for 89 wins, the total with which the Milwaukee Brewers clinched the second wild card in 2019. After MLB and the Players Association agreed on the eve of the season to expand the playoff field to 16 teams from 10, that would put the Cardinals comfortably in the hunt.
OPPOSED - COVID uncertainty
The effort and angst could all be for naught if the season is derailed by the coronavirus. Thirty teams have a common opponent in 2020, and concerns over MLB’s policies and protocols were renewed Thursday after Washington Nationals star Juan Soto was revealed to have tested positive just hours before the defending champions played in the season’s first game.
The Cardinals - and indeed all of baseball - are saying the right things when it comes to caution and concern. Time will test whether they can do enough of the right things for the season to play to a natural rather than truncated conclusion.
Jeff Jones is a freelance sports writer and member of the Baseball Writers Association of America. He is a frequent contributor to the Belleville News-Democrat, mlb.com and other sports websites.