The Rams Took a Major Risk With Ty Simpson, and They Should Know Better

In Super Bowl LIII on February 3, 2019, the Los Angeles Rams lost to the New England Patriots in a 13-3 defensive battle in which Sean McVay's Rams became the second team in Super Bowl history not to score a touchdown in the biggest game, matching the Miami Dolphins in their 24-3 loss to the Dallas Cowboys in Super Bowl VI... on January 14, 1972.

This was the apex point in McVay's souring on quarterback Jared Goff. Goff was the first overall pick in the 2016 draft, and McVay inherited Goff when McVay became the team's head coach and offensive shot-caller in 2017. It worked pretty well for a while, but as time went on, and Goff's physical limitations and mental processes became more clear for better and for worse, McVay wanted more.

So, in January, 2021, the Rams executed a trade with the Detroit Lions that sent Goff, Los Angeles' 2021 third-round pick, and their 2022 and 2023 first-round picks to the Motor City for Matthew Stafford. In one fell swoop, the Rams went from a good but limited quarterback in Goff who needs some schematic uplifting, to one of the most physically gifted throwers in NFL history in Stafford. The results were definitive - the Rams won Super Bowl LVI over the Cincinnati Bengals 24-21 at the end of Stafford's first season in L.A., and Stafford was named NFL MVP at the end of the 2025 season.

So, it's quite interesting that with the 13th overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, McVay and the Rams selected Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson. At 6-foot-1 1/8 and 211 pounds at the scouting combine, Simpson isn't exactly the most imposing figure, and he has just one year under his belt as an NCAA starter. Of course, the history of one-year college starters in the NFL is very rough. For every Cam Newton who breaks the trend, there are several Mitchell Trubiskies, Ryan Tannehills, Anthony Richardsons, and Mark Sanchezes who proved the trend true.

And while Simpson began the 2025 season at a lights-out level before injuries scuttled the rest of his campaign, the overall tape brings forth a lot of concerns.

In 2025, Simpson completed 306 of 474 passes for 3,561 yards, 28 touchdowns, five interceptions, and a passer rating of 102.5. He also ran the ball 70 times for 292 yards and two touchdowns.

The stats look good, but what do they mean regarding Simpson's NFL transition? Let's get a bit more granular. When under pressure last season, Simpson completed 58 of 111 passes for 703 yards, four touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 75.0. But when blitzed, Simpson was lights-out – 121 completions in 208 attempts for 1,409 yards, 13 touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 95.6.

Simpson was good enough outside the pocket on designed plays and improvisations, completing 47 of 89 passes outside the pocket for 454 yards, seven touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 88.9. He's more than functionally mobile; he can add the QB run game to your offense to a point.

The inexperience shows up on Simpson's tape in some disconcerting ways.

He has not yet learned to throw with anticipation consistently, which means that he will not throw his receivers open as much as he will put the ball in danger by taking an extra hitch until he sees what he needs to see on the field. The problem with this is that by the time you see an open receiver and throw the ball to him, that receiver will not be open when the ball gets there. This is evident far too often, and while it can be mitigated to a point by the NFL's trend to pure progression reads, where the quarterback throws to spots based on matchups as opposed to deciding what to do based on what the defense does schematically, you can't be a top-tier NFL quarterback until and unless you can consistently throw with anticipation. You're simply leaving too many opportunities on the field if you can't..

And while Simpson did complete 26 of 62 passes of 20 or more air yards last season for 784 yards, six touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 101.2 (pretty good for higher-risk throws), you need to watch the tape to get the context. And here's where Simpson's hesitation to throw before the opening is clear affects his potential once again.

The lack of anticipation also means that Simpson will telegraph too many of his throws. He's unlikely to fool defenders at the NFL level as much as he will be fooled, as he'll be seeing a lot more varied fronts, fake motions, and coverage switches at the NFL level. Moreover, since he doesn't have what you'd call next-level arm talent, he asks his receivers to do a lot of the work.

The Rams might shine Simpson's late-season struggles on with the gastritis he dealt with in the season's second half. From Week 1 through Week 11, Simpson completed 198 of 296 passes for 2,461 yards, 21 touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 114.7. From Week 12 through Alabama's Rose Bowl Quarterfinal loss to Indiana, where Simpson suffered a cracked rib and left in the second quarter, he completed 108 of 178 passes for 1,100 yards, seven touchdowns, four interceptions, and a passer rating of 82.1.

The problem with making too much of Simpson's early-season success is that the NFL transition issues were still there. Which is why you can't look at college quarterbacks beating up on college defenses and make any sort of empirical judgment; you have to look at the transitive attributes and liabilities.

Based on the tape I've seen, I would give Ty Simpson a second-round grade, and that's adjusting for inflation based on the fact that quarterbacks generally get overdrafted in line with their actual skill sets - which is what I think happened here. Simpson is a relatively high-floor, low-ceiling player with decent tools and nothing spectacular that stands out and makes you think, "Hey, we can take these traits and make the most of them." He's more of a generic quarterback than a force multiplier who will need to be in a highly-structured offense where he's playing the hits as opposed to writing them.

The advantage for Simpson is that he won't have to start right away with Stafford coming back for his 18th NFL season, and he'll be learning from two of the best offensive minds in the NFL in McVay and Stafford. But on its face, the Simpson pick makes me think that McVay forgot what he learned when he and general manager Les Snead pulled the trigger on the Stafford trade - when you have a physically and mentally limited quarterback who can't get you over the proverbial hump, you need to move heaven and earth to improve your lot at the game's most important position.

Right now, it appears that with the Ty Simpson pick, the Rams set themselves up to fall back to earth in a decisive and completely unnecessary fashion.

Rams fan reacts to shocking Ty Simpson pick at 13! pic.twitter.com/3kqXcrzgSt

— Athlon Sports (@AthlonSports) April 24, 2026

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This story was originally published April 23, 2026 at 9:53 PM.