Severe storms could bring tornadoes, hail and damaging wind to Illinois on Monday

A potentially significant severe weather event is possible on Monday afternoon across Illinois.

The NOAA Storm Prediction Center has an enhanced risk for severe weather three days out as a potent environment could bring an all hazards threat to the region including tornadoes, severe hail and wind.

Severe weather is likely across the state on Monday, with the Storm Prediction Center highlighting a 45% severe weather risk across the state, stretching from the western side of the Mississippi Valley all the way to the Indiana state line.

Supercells capable of very large hail and potentially strong tornadoes are expected during the afternoon/early evening hours.

"Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Monday afternoon and evening," the Storm Prediction Center said. At least initially, this may include several evolving supercells potentially capable of producing strong tornadoes across parts of southeastern Iowa into central through southern Illinois and adjacent east central and southeast Missouri."

Storms may tend to congeal into more linear segments with time (and southeastern extent), with the predominant threats shifting more toward damaging winds and (weaker) tornadoes. There remains some uncertainty about how quickly this transition will occur, however.

"The best potential for severe thunderstorms exists largely between 2-10 PM, though changes to the timing are still possible as specific details of the frontal timing come into focus," the St. Louis NWS said. "There likely will be a corridor of relatively higher threat within the broader enhanced risk (Level 3), but exactly where is uncertain. In part, that depends on the track of the surface low where there is still plenty of spread in the exact track."

A better idea of the exact threats and locations will come together in the next 36 hours, and more information will be released when it becomes available.

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