Busted bracket? These are the odds of picking a perfect March Madness bracket
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How messed up is your March Madness bracket?
When No. 15-seeded St. Peter’s University upset the University of Kentucky in the first round of the men’s NCAA tournament, my bracket took a big hit because I picked the No. 2-seeded Wildcats to win the whole thing.
Oh well, at least I didn’t have a lot of bucks riding on it. (Zero, actually.)
But as the games resume in the men’s and women’s tournaments this weekend in the Final Four, it prompted the question: What are the odds of picking a perfect NCAA basketball tournament bracket?
Let’s start by comparing the chances of picking a perfect bracket with the chances of being hit by lightning and winning the lottery.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports the odds of being struck by lightning in a given year are around 1 in 500,000.
OK, that seems pretty high.
The Mega Millions game reports that the chances of winning its jackpot is one in 302.57 million.
That’s a lot higher than your chances of getting hit by lightning but compared to picking a perfect bracket, it’s nothing.
A report by Daniel Wilco at NCAA.com estimates that if you just randomly pick game winners, your chances of perfection stands at one in 9.2 quintillion.
If you’re not familiar with a “quintillion,” Merriam-Webster defines the U.S. usage as a “number equal to 1 followed by 18 zeros.”
If you factor in some sports knowledge like the fact that a No. 16 seed rarely defeats a No. 1 seed, your chance of picking a perfect bracket is 1 in 120.2 billion, according to the NCCA.com article. This is based on 63 games played in the field of 64 teams.
Wilco notes that no one has ever completed a verified perfect NCAA bracket.
This year, NCAA.com has tracked brackets that sports fans have filled out online. The organization reports the best bracket in the men’s tournament was perfect for 28 games while the best one in the women’s tournament was perfect for the first 35 games.
So with the thought that a perfect bracket isn’t going to happen anytime soon, enjoy the rest of March Madness, which actually ends in April. The women’s tournament concludes on April 3 and the men’s contest on April 4.
This story was originally published March 24, 2022 at 7:00 AM.
