Do a tight budget, questionable contracts tie the Cardinals hands at Winter Meetings?

Major League Baseball’s annual Winter Meetings begin on Sunday at the Hilton San Diego Bayfront in San Diego, California, and the St. Louis Cardinals find themselves in the delicate position of having a surplus of available players but a deficit of ones they can count on.

The week in San Diego is likely to be a quiet one for the Cardinals.

Last year’s Winter Meetings in Las Vegas were highlighted by a waiver claim for a pitcher named Ryan Meisinger and a trade for utility bat Drew Robinson. Neither player would finish the season in the organization.

With payroll commitments already north of $140 million for 2020, the Cardinals find themselves in a position where their payroll budget and the existence of several contracts of questionable wisdom are likely to limit their transactional flexibility.

Incumbent left fielder Marcell Ozuna is a free agent after rejecting the one year, $17.8 million qualifying offer from the Cardinals. Ozuna has expressed a desire to remain with the Cardinals throughout the last calendar year, but the club is hesitant to make a multi-year commitment to a player whose production they view as replaceable internally.

Left field candidates

Top prospect Dylan Carlson, who was named Thursday as the organization’s Minor League Player of the Year, is a candidate to take over in left field with a strong showing in spring training. Carlson, who turned 21 in October, hit .292 with 26 home runs and 20 stolen bases split between Double-A Springfield and Triple-A Memphis in 2019. He appeared primarily in centerfield in the minors, but did play 49 of his 140 innings for Memphis in left.

Carlson is part of a triumvirate of largely untested outfielders to whom the Cardinals are eager to provide opportunities in 2020. The others — Randy Arozarena and Lane Thomas — made their major league debuts in 2019, but were limited by a crowded roster and a late season injury, respectively.

Thomas in particular was singled out by President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak as a player who would likely have been given an opportunity to make an impact down the stretch and into the postseason had he not been dealing with a broken wrist.

Each of those three players represents a strong alternative to center fielder Harrison Bader, who the Cardinals are treating as a returning starter despite his demotion to the minor leagues in July and his removal from the starting lineup for all but the first and last games of the postseason.

Bader was a finalist for the National League Gold Glove in center field despite hitting just .205 and striking out 117 times in 406 plate appearances. Bader was seemingly easy prey for breaking balls out of the hands of right handers and, at times, struggled to fully integrate the offensive philosophy espoused by hitting coach Jeff Albert.

What to do with Fowler, Carpenter?

Dexter Fowler bounced back from a lost 2018 to provide a serviceable 2019, splitting time between center and right field. Heading into the fourth year of a five-year deal which features a no-trade clause and will see him paid $16.5 million in each of the next two seasons, Fowler is all but certain to return.

Third baseman Matt Carpenter is similarly ensconced, having signed a perplexing contract extension at the start of a 2019 season which would develop into the worst of his career.

Challenged by Tommy Edman for playing time and, like Bader, eventually forced from the starting lineup, Carpenter’s contract is an impediment to change that leaves the Cardinals with, by their estimation, no option but to trust that an offseason of work will allow him to bounce back.

In each of the past three offseasons, Mozeliak and the Cardinals front office have made a substantial acquisition to address parts of the offense which they felt were lacking.

Fowler signed as a free agent before the 2017 season, Ozuna was acquired from Miami via trade before the 2018 season, and Paul Goldschmidt was brought to St. Louis from the Arizona Diamondbacks last December. Despite rumors which might see the team linked to players such as Boston outfielder Mookie Betts or free agent third baseman Josh Donaldson, it’s unlikely that a similarly impactful move will be made among the position players this winter.

Carlos Martinez and the rotation

If a change is to occur it will likely be in the starting rotation, where Jack Flaherty, Dakota Hudson, Miles Mikolas, and Adam Wainwright have secured their spots. Wainwright’s return follows his signing of a one-year, incentive-laden deal early in the offseason.

The wildcard on the pitching staff — and, perhaps, the entire roster — is Carlos Martinez.

The high skill, high variance righty spent most of the 2019 as the Cardinal closer after reporting to spring training with a weak shoulder which wouldn’t strengthen sufficiently to allow him to join the rotation. Martinez reported to the team’s facility in Jupiter, Florida last week and was cleared to resume a throwing program after receiving an injection of platelet-rich plasma following the conclusion of the playoffs.

Martinez’s strength on the mound will, ultimately, determine the Cardinals’ strength in the free agent pitching market.

Lefty Madison Bumgarner, formerly of San Francisco, has been linked to the Cardinals in recent days, but market forces may drive his contract price tag over $100 million in guarantees. Such a deal would almost certainly exclude the Cardinals from that pursuit.

Other options, such as lefty Dallas Keuchel or righty Kevin Gausman, could emerge as lower-cost, lower-commitment alternatives which would provide the Cardinals the flexibility to apply Martinez to as many innings as he’s able to handle.

Martinez has also been dangled by the Cardinals on the trade market in recent years, though it’s unlikely that he would generate what the club views as a sufficient return given the uncertainty around his health.

This story was originally published December 7, 2019 at 5:00 AM.