St. Louis Cardinals balance expectations for Alex Reyes’ return with his potential
One of Cardinals manager Mike Shildt’s most commonly used phrases made an appearance in his office following Monday’s spring training loss to the Miami Marlins — “depth’s only as good as the quality of it.”
Pitching depth will inevitably be tested over the duration of a major league season, and the Cardinals faced their first of many pending hurdles early in camp after Miles Mikolas was shut down with a strained flexor tendon in his right elbow. Mikolas confirmed Tuesday morning that his recovery is continuing as planned and that the expressed timeline of three to four weeks of being shut down from throwing remains valid.
Still, that delay, even in the best case scenario, could push Mikolas’s season debut back to the first week of May. That leaves the Cardinals with approximately six full turns of their rotation in which a start will need to be filled, assuming there are no further injuries or inconsistent performances.
WIth Austin Gomber and Alex Reyes making their first appearances of spring against the world champion Washington Nationals, the Cardinals will have completed the first full turn through the pitchers they have in camp competing for a starting job.
Perhaps none in that group has a lower bar of public expectations than Reyes, still just 25 years old. Perhaps none has a higher ceiling for the ability.
“Alex has been...working back toward baseline, and then getting ahead of it and getting back to just baseline being healthy,” Shildt said Tuesday morning. “ ... He’s not been able to make that progression to the next phase, but now he’s back to a longer baseline of health, progression, coming into camp without any limitations ... “
Reyes made his debut in 2016 as a 21-year-old and one of the most hyped pitching prospects in recent memory. He was outstanding in his debut campaign, allowing only eight earned runs in 46 innings pitched.
Then came 2017, and a twinge in his elbow which led to Tommy John surgery. Then 2018, when weakness in his shoulder in his final rehab start unraveled into a lat injury which doomed his season. Finally 2019, when he couldn’t find his command after starting the year in the big league bullpen and then, in frustration, broke his non-pitching hand punching a wall while with Triple-A Memphis.
Three lost seasons later, Shildt is trying to remain conservative while still tempted by the possibilities.
“We underestimate how challenging it can be,” Shildt said. “Yeah, it’s the No. 1 responsibility to throw strikes for a pitcher, but just think about if you don’t get to be on the mound for a couple years, this is still the highest level of baseball.
“If you’re not able to get on that mound and get those touches and get the opportunity to pitch for two years in a young career, I think the expectations for that command to be there is probably a little unreasonable.”
Reyes threw just 37 ⅓ innings in competition last season, split between St. Louis, Triple-A Memphis, and a rehab assignment at Single-A Palm Beach. Shildt said that his work on the back fields of the Jupiter complex while rehabbing pushed his total closer to 50 innings.
That’s roughly the same total as Carlos Martínez, whose hold on a rotation spot will be as firm as his shoulder remains strong. For Reyes, then, it’s fair to wonder whether he’s capable of making the same jump.
“It makes us more aware and it’s a good reminder to make sure that we’re putting guys in the best position and again,” Shildt said of Reyes’s 2019 experience. “There’s gonna be potentially guys that are in Triple-A that have major league talent and knowing the timing of that may be appropriate for our club and for them individually. And marrying the two. So we’re gonna be mindful of it.”
The Cardinals are also mindful of Reyes’s frustration with the rehab process.
After three years spent largely in Jupiter, he was encouraged to spend the winter at his home in the Dominican Republic. He arrived in camp at full strength, leaner than perhaps he’s ever been, and armed with the tools that built his reputation.
“It’s filthy stuff,” Shildt said with a smile. “I saw him throw live the other day. It’s not surprising with how he’s gone about it. He deserves all the credit. He’s put his time, energy and effort into it.”
Martínez’s spot in the rotation will depend on his health. Kwang-hyun Kim’s will depend on his ability to adjust to major league hitters and hold up to the rigors of a new schedule. Austin Gomber and Daniel Ponce de Leon will be fighting to move up from Memphis, and John Gant and Ryan Helsley will seek to escape the gravitational pull of high-leverage bullpen roles.
Reyes has the talent to eclipse them all. Three long, lost orbits later, the Cardinals are quietly hoping the sun is finally about to rise.
