Economy, COVID, rule changes hinder St. Louis Cardinals’ offseason strategy
It would be unkind to say the St. Louis Cardinals are a rudderless ship adrift in an offseason without a clear destination in mind, but it would be inaccurate to say that they have a strong sense, as of the second week of December, of the path which lies before them.
Cardinals President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak met with the media via teleconference on Wednesday, in lieu of the traditional daily sessions that would have otherwise accompanied the annual and now virtual Winter Meetings. He laid out the team’s goals — retaining “legacy players” Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright — and conceded the pace of action around baseball remains slowed by broader global turmoil.
“This month historically in baseball has been where teams are really ramping up,” Mozeliak said. “You’re starting to see clubs really finalize what they think their team’s going to look like.
“I really think January’s going to be the new December as we move forward, and I think part of that is just because of the uncertainty that still exists in the game from our economy to what’s happening in our country and to really understanding what some of the rules and changes may look like.
“Patience is going to be required through this, and that’s how we’re going to approach it.”
Mozeliak said that the team has had “very open discussions” with representatives for Wainwright and Molina, though Wainwright said earlier this week that he was yet to receive a formal contract offer.
“We know we have some tasks in front of us, and the way we’ve sort of laid it out is obviously looking at Molina and Mr. Wainwright and trying to figure out if we’ll have the ability to bring them back, so those discussions are ongoing,” Mozeliak said. “At some point, depending on the outcomes of that, we’re going to have to pivot in some other directions. We’re certainly keeping the pulse of trade and free agent markets to see what ways we can use to improve our team.”
Those pivots will be limited by the financial resources which the team’s ownership decides to commit to roster construction. Mozeliak said Wednesday that, while he does now have an “idea” of what the payroll budget will be for 2021, he does not yet have a “hard number.”
“We obviously anticipate it being less than where we were a year ago, he said, “but again, nothing’s firm as of today.”
According to FanGraphs, before signing Molina and Wainwright, the Cardinals already have an estimated $130 million in salary commitments for the 2021 season. In 2020, before salaries were prorated due to the shortened schedule, that payroll was approximately $166 million.
That leaves very little left to cut.
“The answer is yes,” Mozeliak said, when asked if the team could improve without any outside additions. “The answer could be very well no. We do think there’s talent in this group that didn’t play to the level that we expected.
“There are unique experiences during this pandemic, but to simply look at our team from those 60 games and determine no we can’t get better or determine no we will get better, that’s difficult.”
Should the Cardinals fail to re-sign Molina, Mozeliak said the team would likely look to the market for a veteran catcher to pair with Andrew Knizner. Failing that, Mozeliak was cagey when it came to identifying a position at which he saw an obvious opportunity for offensive improvement.
He did emphasize that strong defensive play from Paul Goldschmidt on the infield and Harrison Bader in the outfield “are nice to anchor to” in terms of improving the team’s overall defense. To that end, a pure offensive talent could be a fit.
One spot at which such a player would be a clearly beneficial addition is at designated hitter, which the Cardinals do not currently know whether they will be able to access in the 2021 season. After the DH was used in both leagues in 2020, discussions continue as to its place in baseball for the coming season.
A universal DH rule represents a powerful negotiating tool for both the league and the player’s union, and so economic uncertainty continues to feed competitive inequity.
“Knowing what the rules will be would be helpful in terms of roster construction,” Mozeliak said. “When you think about the DH in general just in terms of our team, it seems like a good place to start to try to get more offense. So in regards to having clarity on that or understanding, sooner rather than later would be better, but I’m not sure when we’re going to get that answer, so again, remain patient.”
The Cardinals are operating under the assumption that baseball’s economic landscape will not return to its previous prosperity for a number of years, and so a period of austerity is likely to be met with a renewed expression of frustration from a fan base which will celebrate the 10th anniversary of the club’s most recent championship next fall.
Rather than charting a course to a new destination, the club remains hopeful that the most iconic players from its recent past can provide the necessary guidance to a competitive safe harbor.
“Circumstances aside, there’s challenges, and hopefully the team we put out there we’ll be proud of,” Mozeliak said. “I really am excited about the guys we have and I still think we have a lot to look forward to come the season, but obviously still a lot of work to do between now and then.”
This story was originally published December 10, 2020 at 11:00 AM.
