Will Major League Baseball season start on time? That seems less and less likely

Feb. 1 has come and gone without major movement in Major League Baseball’s lockout, leaving behind some solid uncertainty regarding whether the season will be able to start on time.

The increased frequency of meetings on core economics between the league and the Players Association — twice in the last week of January and again to kick off February — would seem to signal progress. Getting the parties in the same room has not been simple or indeed common, and bantering back and forth over proposals could at least spur some discussion that might move things along.

And yet the players, despite dropping a request for earlier access to the free agent market, haven’t been met in kind by ownership. Recent rounds of negotiating have made clear the players believe the days of being paid top dollar into the twilight of their careers have largely ended, and their focus remains on seeking ways to get younger players paid at rates more commensurate with the value they provide to teams.

Unfortunately, the reported increases in the league’s minimum salary which have been offered by the owners are so insufficient as to come in beneath what would be a standard cost of living adjustment in any other industry. Reporting from Evan Drellich of The Athletic, among others, has found that the owners are offering a minimum salary of $610,000 per season, up from $575,000 in the most recent collective bargaining agreement, agreed to in 2016. Players are seeking a minimum salary of $775,000.

There has also been some coming together over the possibility of the establishment of a pool of bonus money that would reward young players who provide excellent performance to their teams. Players reportedly initially asked for a $105 million pool, and later revised that ask down to $100 million.

Owners have offered a pool of $10 million. The concept may show some common ground between the sides, but the execution clearly leaves a wide berth.

With pitchers and catchers currently set to report to camps on Valentine’s Day — just more than a week away — the window of opportunity for starting on time is all but slammed shut. Even with a miraculous and sudden agreement between the sides which materializes out of thin air, some players would be late to report owing simply to the challenges of international travel.

An operational collective bargaining agreement is necessary in many cases for players residing outside the United States to receive authorization for their work visas and, therefore, clearance to travel to Florida or Arizona for spring training. In a world of new travel restrictions brought on by the pandemic, those challenges become even more daunting and necessitate more lead time.

Many players also remain literally out of a job for the coming season. The spending frenzy undertaken by teams at the end of November didn’t sweep up all — or even most — free agents, and both players and teams will be scrambling to find spots once the league is again open for business.

Free agents, domestic players

Data provided by FanGraphs shows 201 Major League free agents still without contracts for next season, to say nothing of minor league players who may have to wait for other chips to settle before they find their next offer. International players who seek Major League contracts also aren’t currently able to sign deals; the uncertainty around rosters makes predictions and projections hard to fathom, given the rush of player movement yet to come.

Logistics for domestic players are simpler without being simple. Finding an apartment willing to offer a two-month lease is challenging enough without knowing the date on which that lease needs to begin. Some players are likely to travel to the area of their team’s training site, but in doing so, they’d be sacrificing the certainty of the access to the winter facilities they use closer to home.

While a rushed spring training that commences as late as the first week of March would likely still allow the season to start on time, it does not come without risk. Teams and players both felt that the expedited ramp up to the pandemic-delayed 2020 season contributed to injuries both that season and in 2021 as players struggled to catch up to feeling normal.

December throwaway month

Baseball’s wasted December did not have to come with consequences, but it has, owing to the apparent refusal of ownership to make significant concessions and come to players with realistic solutions to the problems the players see.

Whether the players are able to remain unified and hang on to those demands will likely determine the outcome of the lockout; owners believe — correctly — that they hold significant economic leverage. Their money moves like glaciers in both speed and size, and the currents of time serve only to push against the players.

The good of the game, for its own sake, does not yet appear to have entered into the calculus of the owners. It is, after all, a challenge to squeeze onto a balance sheet.

This story was originally published February 6, 2022 at 8:00 AM.