This year’s Cardinals are chasing their first title since 2011. Is that a realistic goal?

The breakneck speed of spring whiplashing the St. Louis Cardinals into a new era has found itself contrasted with the inexorable pull of nostalgia, pulling the franchise and its goals back ceaselessly into the past.

This is the last weekend for six months without Major League Baseball, and the Cardinals find themselves at a franchise crossroads that will define both the scope of the team’s future and its commitment to a model that has been long on opportunity but short on meaningful results for more than a decade.

Oliver Marmol has spoken of chasing a championship. Albert Pujols has spoken of chasing a championship. Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Nolan Arenado, Harrison Bader, and many others in the clubhouse have spoken of chasing championships. Now is the moment for the Cardinals to answer these questions to determine whether that’s realistic.

How much do they want to win?

Too often, attempts to compete in baseball are measured in terms of dollars. Outspending every other club in free agency and winning the offseason championship can be satisfying in the short term, but how big is the group that believes the Philadelphia Phillies and their collection of large adult designated hitters can be a real contender?

For the Cardinals, contention is about optimizing their resources, and striking when the iron is hot. That’s the model which has been created and championed by the decision makers who count, and commitment to maximizing the decision to win — not just the opportunity to compete — is essential.

Will Marmol be empowered to make the daily decisions a manager must make, especially when the risk of dreaded philosophical differences becomes tangible? Will those in power leave the marketing to the marketing department and not be content to turn this year into a cynical nostalgia tour? When the inevitable cracks reveal themselves as the season wears on, will there be an attempt made to patch them with players who, from the outset, are tasked with helping win a season and not just to get through it?

How deep is the pitching, really?

A full 60% of the starting rotation which opened the year for the Cardinals in 2021 was unable to secure a Major League contract for the 2022 season, and their second-most frequently used starter is also no longer in the majors. Rotations shift and change throughout the year, and that was true even before a third consecutive season of abnormal preparations – this one caused by the lockout – got underway.

The Cardinals have made fairly significant commitments to Steven Matz and Drew VerHagen, would like to make an even more significant commitment to Dakota Hudson, and are still trying to squeeze as much value as possible from their mostly ill-given commitment to Miles Mikolas. If all four of those bets break in the right direction, they will happily collect their winnings. There’s a reason, though, that parlay bets pay so well – they’re very hard to hit.

Matt Liberatore will start a game for the Cardinals this season. Jake Woodford will too. Connor Thomas has a real opportunity to join that group, and the Cardinals have their fingers crossed that the crossroads at which Zack Thompson is approaching in his career will indeed lead down a path toward the big leagues.

Looming behind all of that is the reliance on a 41-year-old opening day starter who continues to defy conventional and actuarial wisdom. The Cardinals can depend on Adam Wainwright to take the ball and provide results every fifth day until the day comes when they can’t. The problem, of course, is that no one knows when that day will come.

Will the Cardinals keep the course, or is a retooling on the horizon?

There’s nothing more fashionable in baseball than a rebuild, and a great way for front office types to hang on to their jobs is to convince their bosses in the ownership suite that a few years without any expectations of winning are crucial to the team’s long term success.

Bill DeWitt has shown no inclination that he’s willing to suffer that foolishness, and whatever the flaws of the front office group, they have kept the franchise not only competitive but above .500 for a full 15 years.

Still, there are dates on the horizon that could force the issue. Nolan Arenado’s second opt-out clause must be decided on after this season, and while of course his commitment to St. Louis has been unquestioned since day one and of course it would be a challenge to do better on the dollars on the open market, that thread is loose until it’s not.

Next season is the last season of team control for Harrison Bader and Jack Flaherty, either or both of whom could angle toward the free agent market in the winter of 2023. If that’s the case, they’ll never have more value to potential trade partners than they will next offseason.

Molina and Pujols have announced their retirements. Wainwright has walked to the line and held steady, but seems likely to follow. The wave of turnover could crash down on these Cardinals much more firmly than may seem immediately evident, causing questions about the future to force a greater emphasis on the present.

The time for the Cardinals has to be now, or it has the potential to be pushed into the surprisingly far off future.