With MLB’s new rules in place, Cardinals speedster Bader can run, run, & run some more

From the day of his debut, Cardinals center fielder Harrison Bader has been one of the fastest players in the Major Leagues. His average sprint speed has never been lower than 21st-best in baseball, consistently hovering around 29.5 feet/second in a metric where 30.0 is considered to be elite.

That speed has helped shape him into one of the game’s elite defenders, culminating in his having won his first Gold Glove following the 2021 season. What it hadn’t previously done, however, was make him an elite base stealer. His career high total is a paltry 15 in 2018, when he appeared in 138 games and made 427 plate appearances — both also career bests.

That high, however, is soon to fall, thanks to adjustments made to both Bader’s approach and the rules of the game. He entered this week’s series against the Tampa Bay Rays sitting at 14 steals in only 52 games, tied with teammate Tommy Edman for the lead in the National League. Those 14 steals came in his first 14 attempts of the season; his would-be 15th, on Saturday night in Chicago, was at first granted and then reversed on replay review.

He’s not simply running more often. He’s running when he should be.

“I think baserunning speed — especially when you’re trying to steal a base — a lot of it is anticipation and preparation prior to when you actually start running,” Bader explained. “You definitely feel a lot more comfortable when you do your homework on the pitcher.”

“A lot of stuff in spring training,” Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol explained. “Conversations as far as using his speed appropriately. We have a lot of homework on what guys do, when they do it, why they do it. And it’s now being able to dive into that and know it as well as we do.”

In prior seasons, some of that preparation had been unnecessary. Bader, often cemented in the eighth spot in the batting order ahead of the pitcher, would be infrequently tasked with swiping bags because the risk of an out meant wasting an opportunity to turn the lineup over.

Or, as Bader put it, it was “like (micturating) in the wind.”

“It’s the only difference,” he said of the introduction of the designated hitter across baseball. Without worrying about a wasted spot in the lineup, opportunities which he may previously have seen on the bases and been denied are now open.

Bader has reached base via either a single, a walk or a hit by pitch 49 times entering play Tuesday, meaning he’s been able to use his legs to turn one base into extra bases approximately one in every three times he reaches base. That’s a crafty way to enhance the impact of a .311 on-base percentage and enhance a .392 slugging percentage.

50/50, 75/25

With that enhanced knowledge comes the responsibility of knowing the right time to be prudent. His streak of consecutive steals to open the season is also indicative of selectivity, and identifying the best situations to run rather than all situations. That, by his manager’s reckoning, allows the Cardinals to end up on the right end of convoluted probabilities.

“There’s (been) — and I don’t want to say flip of a coin because it’s probably higher than that — but still not (times) where he felt I can 100% take this base, and he just didn’t force it,” Marmol said. “That’s what I love. He’s taking it when he needs to take it, and if it’s a little iffy — and 50/50 meaning 75/25 — he’s like, no need to force it.”

When does 50/50 mean 75/25? On the basepaths. The Cardinals, like many other clubs, consider a 75% success rate to be their break even number for deciding when to steal a base. So, if a runner such as Bader is more confident than not that he’s 75% likely to succeed in his steal, he should proceed. If his confidence is below that — or perhaps breakeven — it’s best to do the prudent thing and hold up.

Instinct, distilled from data.

Relaxing and being loose

Even the process of signaling when it’s time to go has been modernized. Third base coach Pop Warner will still run through a variety of signs between pitches, but they aren’t always directions to the runner. Sometimes they’re meant to signal the hitter. Sometimes they’re instructions to the bench. Sometimes they’re misdirection. Sometimes, yes, they’re a regular old steal sign.

All the time, it’s the responsibility of the runner to look for an edge, and push where appropriate. Their 44 steals entering Tuesday led the National League and their eight times caught stealing were the third-fewest. The pushes have been well chosen.

“When things add up, the homework that you’ve done prior to the game shows up right in front of you,” Bader said. “It’s just a matter of relaxing and being loose, and as soon as you see that cue, you just take it.”

This story was originally published June 8, 2022 at 8:00 AM.