Should St. Louis Cardinals look to trade Hudson? Would anyone even be interested?
The St. Louis Cardinals have a Dakota Hudson problem.
Unfortunately for them, that problem is not limited to his results, which have been indisputably substandard. Following Monday’s tough start in Atlanta which was mercifully restricted to four innings due to a long rain delay, Hudson sat atop the leaderboard in the National League with 39 walks. That continues a trend from his last full season, 2019, in which he led the majors with 89 free passes.
His earned run average has ballooned up to 4.29 — the worst of his career by nearly a full run — while also posting a 4.48 fielding independent pitching mark. If FIP can be used as a measure to help determine how much of a boost a pitcher is getting from his defense, then Hudson is getting pretty much what he deserves, which is in contrast to his totals prior to Tommy John surgery in which his ERA was often nearly a full run better than his FIP.
He is in only the 20th percentile in average exit velocity — which is to say, 80% of pitchers are better – and the 16th percentile of hard hit percentage.
In swings and misses? Third percentile. Strikeouts? Fourth percentile. Expected batting average? Fifth percentile.
More on Hudson
By any measure, the same result emerges — batters are hitting Hudson hard, but since his repertoire as a classic sinker ball pitcher suggests a solid defense can help him weather those problems, the Cardinals ought to be in a strong position to get the best from him. That, in turn, reveals the nature of the dilemma. Is there a clearly better pitcher than Hudson available on the mid-season trade market, and if so, will the team be aggressive enough to acquire him?
Hudson represents the breakeven point for the rotation inasmuch as Miles Mikolas and Adam Wainwright, each of whom carry their own degrees of risk, have earned the right to be immovable pillars. Should either go down before the Aug. 2 trade deadline, it would be all but impossible to find a sufficient replacement, despite the club’s best efforts, and so their calculations can safely exclude that possibility.
Andre Pallante, too, has earned his spot. Despite breaking camp in the bullpen — and as the only player on the Opening Day roster without any Major League experience — his transition to the rotation has been seamless. He, like Hudson, pitches to contact. Unlike Hudson, however, he’s shown enough fastball life to reach out and grab a strikeout when necessary. Whether his body holds up to the full campaign remains to be seen, but with no visible caution lights, Pallante is a go.
Matz, Flaherty, Montas & Bumgarner
Steven Matz, on the path to return from a sore throwing shoulder, carries the weight of incumbency, as well as the heft of his contract. Despite the unmitigated disaster of results that have come from St. Louis’s off-season additions this past winter, it’s Matz who could turn that trend around, assuming he rebounds strong, healthy and effective. The four-year bet on the lefty is not one the club will be willing to write off in one truncated season.
Jack Flaherty is a wild card. His shortened rehab ended in an unfortunate flameout, and as he undergoes several weeks of rest before resuming a throwing program, it’s impossible to know the extent to which he will be able to contribute this season, despite his bold assertion he will pitch again in 2022. If he returns and is a facsimile of the pitcher the club saw in the first half of 2021 before he was felled by injury, much to their benefit. Whether he does is an entirely open question.
Oakland’s Frankie Montas remains the top pitcher explicitly available on the trade market over the next month, though his having left a start over the weekend with decreased velocity and a stiff throwing shoulder throws up countless red flags for potential suitors. Others, like Arizona’s Madison Bumgarner, have some curb appeal but reasons for caution under the hood (Bumgarner is allowing a higher percentage of hard contact and walking a higher percentage of batter than at any other time in his storied career).
‘This isn’t a tryout’
Still, surrender should not be an option. A Cardinals front office which has frequently claimed that an inability to execute impactful mid-season trades has hinged on the asks of other clubs needs to overcome that self-constructed barrier and develop a list of reasonable targets to provide meaningful pitching assistance. A club with three of the five most productive players in the NL thus far in 2022 should not be stuck in the muck. There are outs out there to be found.
Manager Oliver Marmol told reporters including MLB.com’s John Denton in Atlanta on Monday night, “this is the big leagues, and it’s about performance. This isn’t a tryout.” The message to Dakota Hudson was clear. The message to the front office should be too.
If the brass can’t find someone better, then Marmol was right, it’s not a tryout — it’s open season.