Uncertainty, underperformance leave Cardinals with several question marks this off-season
The St. Louis Cardinals won 93 games and the National League Central in 2022, and 10 days from the season’s end, those in positions of power in the organization would likely be unable to say with more than 75% certainty who will be in the starting lineup at as many as eight of the 10 positions — designated hitter included — when the 2023 season dawns.
Turnover is a reality of the world of baseball, but the year-long sense of an era ending at Busch Stadium isn’t just applicable to the retirements of Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols. Uncertainty and underperformance at spots once considered to be settled means this offseason will be more defining than is typical when charting the course of the franchise.
Outfield
Following the 2021 season, the Cardinals saw two outfielders (Tyler O’Neill and Harrison Bader) win Gold Gloves and a third (Dylan Carlson) finish in the top three of voting for National League Rookie of the Year.
One year later, Bader is a Yankee, O’Neill finished a disappointing season on the injured list, and Carlson spiraled against right-handed pitching to the extent that he watched the second game of the Wild Card series from the bench before being tasked with pinch running for Molina.
Shoring up the defense from the middle of the field and moving outward has long driven decisions in St. Louis, but with uncertainty at each and every position away from the corners, establishing a starter in center is an absolute necessity. Carlson showed he can handle the position well enough defensively, but can’t be sufficiently productive as a pure platoon hitter. Lars Nootbaar and O’Neill were fine — Nootbaar perhaps moreso — but either or both could be trade candidates.
Assuming that the Cardinals have no interest in swimming in the deep free agent water in which Aaron Judge’s contract will be lurking — a fair assumption, given the team’s (lack of) history with those pursuits — the best option on the market is Brandon Nimmo of the Mets, who held down 151 games in center with mediocre defense but a 130 OPS+, making him 30% better than league average at the plate.
The Cardinals are also likely to give Jordan Walker, one of the top prospects in all of baseball, every opportunity to earn his spot in the majors out of spring despite not turning 21 until the end of May. Walker was moved to the outfield on the day of the trade deadline and has displayed tremendous athleticism and a booming throwing arm ever since. With a full spring to refine his studies in the field, the promise of his bat may be too hard to pass up.
Catcher
More than two decades have passed since the Cardinals entered the winter without a clear idea of who would be behind the plate on opening day. Andrew Knizner turned in passable work in 2022, deftly handling the pitching staff through a summer in which Molina’s presence was not always available and show stretches of offensive ability that could be sufficient over a larger span; sufficient, at least, for a catcher.
Oakland’s Sean Murphy, arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter, will draw attention on the trade market. As a 2021 Gold Glove winner behind the plate with the ability to approach 20 homers, he’s likely to be in high demand.
Cubs catcher Willson Contreras has already reached out to former teammate José Quintana for reconnaissance on the Cardinals, and he received an entirely favorable report. The Cardinals, however, may not return his interest. Contreras is considered to be an average-at-best defender whose skills behind the plate are fading, and the inability of the Cubs to move him at the deadline speaks volumes about how he’s perceived around the league.
Toronto’s catching situation also bears watching, as backup Danny Jansen appears ready for a regular role but may be squeezed out by Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno. Should the Cardinals instead turn to a veteran stopgap defender to pair with Knizner, potential platoon mate Omar Narváez or NL Central veteran Tucker Barnhart would check many of the boxes the team is looking for.
Middle Infield
The biggest potential surprise of the Cardinals’ offseason would be Paul DeJong’s presence in the organization by the time camp assembles in Jupiter in February. His all-too-brief resurgence was a mirage, and he was reduced to a defensive replacement. If he can indeed prove that he’s capable of hitting Major League pitching, it won’t be in St. Louis.
The second-biggest potential surprise would be chasing down one of the top free agent shortstops, and yet no single move might more directly transform the club’s lineup. Trea Turner is one of the top all-around players in baseball, and both Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson will swim directly in his contractual wake.
A report from Puerto Rico on Thursday claimed Carlos Correa will exercise his opt out clause with Minnesota and enter the market for a second consecutive winter; he, too, is still a transformative presence.
Brendan Donovan and Tommy Edman turned in solid enough seasons in 2022 to earn roles in 2023, but neither is the sort of player that a dominant team can afford to have taking up multiple spots in the lineup. Between fill in turns around the infield and spot duty in the corner outfield, both can be counted on for 450 at bats in 2023; neither should be pushed much beyond.