The money is there for the Cardinals to improve the team. Will they follow through?

To fairly assess both the ability and likelihood of the St. Louis Cardinals to seek high-level solutions in the free agent market requires a fair assessment of the club’s payroll and an understanding of how they attempt to structure their expenditure within the market.

Cardinals ownership has long and often asserted their payroll is commensurate with revenues, and by and large, that has been the case. As a private company, the Cardinals aren’t obliged to share their balance sheet with the public, but the most recent estimate from Forbes pegged them as the seventh-most valuable franchise in MLB, while claiming the club likely operated at a loss in 2021 due to the pandemic.

Spotrac, a resource dedicated to tracking payroll across professional sports, lists the Cardinals as possessing the league’s twelfth-highest payroll in 2022, down slightly from several successive years in the top ten. That would imply the ability to make significant additions, and indeed, the money coming off the books further demonstrates that flexibility.

The impending retirements of Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols are responsible for $12.5 million in payroll space, and a further $8.7 million comes off the books with the departure of Corey Dickerson and the final clearance of released pitchers TJ McFarland and Nick Wittgren. St. Louis also paid $2.5 million in buyouts to Matt Carpenter and Carlos Martínez; all told, those departures clear approximately $23.7 million from the books.

Adam Wainwright is also, technically, headed to free agency. Without his making a statement to the contrary, the Cardinals are likely operating under the assumption that he’ll return, and at something very close to the $17.5 million he earned this season.

As ever, the arbitration process will see some players snag substantial raises. MLB Trade Rumors recently published its annual list of predicted arbitration figures, and two first-time eligible Cardinals are likely to see significant bumps. Tommy Edman ($4.3 million) and Ryan Helsley ($2.4 million) each made a notch over $720,000 in 2022, and so will account for an additional $5 million in space next year.

Jordan Montgomery, arbitration eligible for the third and final time, is also likely to see a significant bump. He’s projected at $10.1 million through the process, up from $6 million in 2022. Dakota Hudson and Tyler O’Neill, each eligible for the second time, are seemingly each due raises of approximately $1.6 million each; That’s a total of $7 million in returning arbitration figures, and $12 million in arbitration raises total.

However, arbitration figures aren’t guaranteed, and also represent an opportunity for cost cutting.

Chris Stratton, acquired at the trade deadline, is projected to earn $3.5 million through the process. Stratton was a perfectly solid back of the bullpen option, but at that price tag, it seems likely the Cardinals will let him walk to free agency and either pursue a discounted deal or look elsewhere.

Alex Reyes, who didn’t pitch an inning in 2022 as he recovered from surgery on a frayed labrum in his pitching shoulder, is projected at $2.85 million. That’s a non-starter; whether he agrees to an amended deal or is simply released to free agency, the Cardinals won’t be approaching that number.

This deluge of data all funnels down to the rough number of a net $12 million coming off the books before free agency opens. When considering the need to replace Molina behind the plate, seek out a forceful outfield bat, and supplement the pitching staff, it’s easy to see where the Cardinals might claim a lack of flexibility to make significant changes.

Arenado’s finances

But then comes Nolan Arenado.

With the third baseman’s opt out clause looming, the possibility remains the financial reality of his contract could change. However, much more likely is a restructuring of his deal that keeps the original framework in place, in large part because doing so guarantees two separate cash payments from the Colorado Rockies to supplement next season’s salary.

Those payments, according to data reported by the Associated Press, would total $21 million in 2023. Arenado also agreed to some zero-interest deferments of his salary, but those are largely offset by a 2% interest deferment he accepted in 2021 which began to be paid this summer, as well as payments still owed by the Cardinals to past stars such as Matt Holliday.

Looking at the numbers

The relevant number is $21 million. Under the deal’s current structure, it’s by far the largest payment the Cardinals will receive from the Rockies over the remaining course of the deal, and its placement is significant; it’s almost a direct offset to the free agent money the Cardinals have coming off the books, as of today, following 2023.

Roughly totaling up the new space, then, before payroll is increased from 2022 levels by a dime, is $33 million. From that number, the Cardinals, who have long prided themselves on their ability to find free agent bargains, should be able to find the necessary flexibility to make significant additions in the free agent market.

Even a modest payroll increase — say, 10% — would bring them to $50 million in easy space.

Their financial ability to make significant additions should not be in doubt. Now, as ever, it comes down to wherewithal.