Rule 5 draft rapidly approaching. Which players will the St. Louis Cardinals protect?
Tuesday’s deadline to add players to a team’s 40-man roster to guarantee their protection from the Rule 5 draft is a relatively minor event, but the Cardinals are hopeful continued progress through their system by lefty Connor Thomas will make it a day they have reason to remember.
A fifth round pick in the 2019 draft, Thomas was selected to the roster, which now stands at 39 players ahead of Friday’s non-tender deadline.
Thomas, 24, significantly improved his stock over the last six weeks, as he was named the Pitcher of the Year in the Arizona Fall League. After recording a 5.47 ERA over 135 innings for Triple-A Memphis, Thomas allowed only five earned runs in 25 2/3 innings for Salt River.
The lefty profiles as a potential contributor out of the bullpen next season, despite leading Memphis in starts and pitching primarily as a starter throughout his career to date. After tweaking his arsenal following the end of the minor league season, Thomas jumped his strikeouts per nine innings rate from 7.3 for the Redbirds to 11.9 in the Fall League.
As the Cardinals actively seek strikeout pitchers to improve their National League-worst mark in that category, Thomas’s remade repertoire could play a significant role in that quest.
Slugging outfielder Moisés Gómez, whose 39 home runs split between Memphis and Double-A Springfield set a new franchise record for a single season in the minors, was added to the roster last week in order to prevent him from being eligible to declare minor league free agency.
Last season’s owner-imposed lockout resulted in the cancellation of the Rule 5 draft, given insufficient time for teams to scout players and the rush for players to switch organizations immediately ahead of spring. As a result, several players who might have stood a chance of selection last fall — first baseman Luken Baker and shortstop Delvin Peréz chief among them — stayed with the Cardinals perhaps a year longer than they otherwise would have.
Baker remains in the organization. Peréz, a first round pick in 2016, was again passed over for protection this winter and opted last week to declare minor league free agency.
Infielder Kramer Robertson and reliever Kodi Whitley, each of whom cleared waivers following the conclusion of the season and have Major League experience, could be at risk of selection in this year’s Rule 5, scheduled again in its traditional spot on the last day of December’s Winter Meetings.
Versatile infielder Evan Mendoza, swingman Tommy Parsons, oft-injured reliever Griffin Roberts and defensive catching specialist Julio E. Rodríguez top the list of available Cardinals who might be of interest to opposing teams.
So too might catcher Pedro Pages, who’s risen quickly through the system since being drafted the same year and one round after Thomas. He was part of the contingent the club sent to the Fall League, and has been roundly judged by those in the organization as a deft handler of pitchers.
Righthanders Paniagua, Perdomo
Also available to other teams will be young righthander Inohan Paniagua, a leading candidate to be named the team’s minor league pitcher of the year. Paniagua, who will turn 23 next February, recorded a 2.81 ERA over 137 ⅔ innings split between Low-A Palm Beach and High-A Peoria.
Though his numbers saw a spike once he moved to the higher level, Paniagua’s upside could represent an intriguing option for a team with the patience to wait out the rough spots of a young pitcher’s early career.
Righty Luis Perdomo once found himself in a similar position, eligible for a selection to the roster young owing to the age at which he signed as an international free agent. The Cardinals declined to offer that protection ahead of the 2016 season, and Perdomo was selected by San Diego. He most recently pitched in the majors last season with Milwaukee.
Rule 5 selections must remain on the selecting team’s active roster or injured list for the duration of the season following their selection. To move off the active roster, they must first be offered back to the team from which they were selected for a nominal waiver fee, or a trade must be agreed to between the two teams.
Stratton, Reyes, non-tender deadline
Friday’s non-tender deadline is the next major offseason hurdle. Most arbitration-eligible players will receive contract offers from St. Louis for the 2023 season, but difficult decisions remain on at least two potential members of the bullpen.
Chris Stratton, acquired at the trade deadline along with José Quintana, is projected to earn $3.5 million in his last year of arbitration. With a recovering Drew VerHagen already guaranteed a similar amount, Stratton could represent a redundancy and the club could seek to reallocate his salary.
The most significant move is likely to come regarding former top prospect and All-Star closer Alex Reyes, who missed the entire 2022 season with a frayed labrum in his pitching shoulder.
President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak acknowledged during his end of season press conference that, without a guarantee of Reyes’s ability to contribute, the Cardinals may well view his roster spot as more valuable than the salary he would be owed in his own last arbitration year.