How will Shohei Ohtani’s elbow injury impact the Cardinals’ off-season plans?
A twinge in Shohei Ohtani’s right elbow sent accompanying shock waves throughout the Major League Baseball ecosystem late on Wednesday night, and their reach went as far as even those teams shoring up their places in the free agency market which is preparing to move in his wake.
The Angels’ two-way sensation has a tear in the ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow – the ligament which is repaired by Tommy John surgery. Ohtani himself had the procedure before the 2019 season and did not pitch that year, and whether he requires a second go under the knife is not yet known.
The Angels did announce Wednesday that he’ll be shut down from pitching for the remainder of this season, but it’s possible he’ll still be able to finish the year as their designated hitter.
This might be terrible news for the game overall and fans who now won’t get a chance to see an historically great player ply the totality of his trade, but it doesn’t directly impact the St. Louis Cardinals. There were very few potential universes in which they would be involved in any bidding for Ohtani, let alone seriously, so his potential loss as a pitching option doesn’t come with a straight line to the team they’re planning to put on the field in 2024.
And yet the impacts of the injury do come with a price, literally.
Ohtani’s free agency is the story which was and is set to dominate baseball headlines in the winter, with clear-headed estimates from industry figures suggesting his contract could climb well north of $500 million. Some in the game have even mused about the possibility of unique issues around the collective bargaining agreement should an enterprising team owner seek to provide franchise equity as part of his compensation.
If Ohtani figures to be merely one of the game’s elite hitters and not also one of its highest echelon pitchers during some significant part of that contract, his value becomes harder to peg. Ohtani turns 30 during next season; as only a hitter, would he exceed the record 12 year, $465 million pact that teammate Mike Trout signed in 2019, when he was 27? Who could dare argue against such a deal, even for a one-way player?
Ohtani brings not only his skills but also unique international prestige. A team which signs him immediately vaults itself into the conversation among the most valuable sports brands around the world, and in the meantime, draws in tens of millions of dollars annually from Japanese companies in marketing deals. Ohtani is worth such outlandish sums not only because that is what the market will bear for his skills, but also because he all but pays for himself.
The teams likely to be serious about adding Ohtani (Dodgers, Mets, Padres) and those who will seemingly be on the periphery (Angels, Giants, Mariners, perhaps Yankees) understand the upside and will be more than willing to pay to play. The remaining free agent market may not have to wait on Ohtani in order to move because he is a one of one; agents for other starting pitchers would be hard pressed to draw a compelling parallel.
Still, the Cardinals have unflinchingly committed to adding three major league starters this winter. Unlike last offseason’s commitment to increase payroll which ended up close enough for horseshoes and hand grenades, there is no wiggle room to be had there. Even the best accounting tricks in the world would have a hard time covering up the count to three.
If one of the teams bidding on Ohtani, though, is spooked by his injury, that could impact their interest in top-end free agent starters such as Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, Julio Urías or Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The Cardinals would seemingly need to come away with at least one pitcher from that group, in addition to two others, to be able to convincingly claim they acted to shore up a woeful starting rotation. A team that has frequently griped about the inability to make moves in a stagnant market might have the chance to set its own.
Take, however, San Francisco as an example. The Giants are in desperate need of a top line starter to pair with Logan Webb. As recently as two days ago, Ohtani might have been their top choice to fill that slot. Now, it’s unclear whether he’ll be able to pitch at all in 2024, let alone how much he can be relied upon.
The trade market will also be available to the Cardinals and is perhaps more likely to return the pieces they want at the sort of price they have historically been willing to stomach. If this year has offered any lessons, though, it’s that their historical prices and practices when it comes to pitching are wildly out of touch with the current reality. It’s time to spend cash and player capital, and it’s time to spend big.
Early this week, it’s likely the Cardinals felt confident about how the winter market for that spending was going to shape up. Now, uncertainty follows along with the uncertainty of Ohtani’s future on the mound.
The game is all the worse for it. It’s incumbent on the Cardinals to act to guarantee they don’t end up paying part of the price.
