Cardinals understand the urgency, but are they really capable of a playoff run?
The St. Louis Cardinals kicked off their final 50 games of the regular season with an absolute dud on Monday, falling 6-0 to the New York Mets in a game that never seemed quite that close.
It was a convergence of all of the team’s biggest flaws to date – a depth starter was exposed, an inflexible bench made for a lineup without much platoon advantage, and an inability to hit lefty pitching was weighed down by receiving almost nothing at all from their offensive cornerstones.
The team’s hottest stretch, running roughly from Mother’s Day through the All-Star break, saw Alec Burleson burst onto the scene in a big way, Masyn Winn secure the leadoff spot with consistent offense, and a resurgence of strong defensive play which helped plug leaks which might spring from aging starters.
The time for the first and third baseman to assert themselves has long since passed. The time for the emergent players to find their next gear has arrived. The time to go on a run is upon the Cardinals, and if they are capable, there is no time to delay.
None of that is news to anyone in the clubhouse. What follows will determine the extent of those capabilities.
Upon Tuesday’s series opener between the Cardinals and Tampa Bay Rays, St. Louis will be six games back in the NL Central and four games back of the third spot in the NL Wild Card standings. There are two teams between them and that final spot, currently held in a tie between the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres.
One of the interloping teams is the Mets, putting some extra sting into Monday’s disappointment. The other, the Pittsburgh Pirates, is a perennial never-ran with some expectations that they will fall off down the stretch. These Pirates, though, have Paul Skenes at the head of their rotation, and he has been arguably the best pitcher in baseball since his debut.
There is plenty of work to be done, and while the pieces are in place to execute, there will be several challenges on the horizon.
When spring training opened, there was a reasonable argument to be made that Michael Siani was fifth on the depth chart for the Cardinals in center field. At the start of August, though, his stellar defense made him unquestionably the starter. While he lacks pop, his batting average has risen steadily, and his 10 sacrifice bunts are the most by any Cardinals outfielder in the last 20 years.
Whatever his offensive deficiencies, he’s provided more than enough value with his defense to earn a spot and solidify his role in the lineup. An oblique strain suffered last weekend, though, will hold him out for seemingly this entire month at minimum. The injury occurred just days after two of the players in line ahead of him for time in center, Dylan Carlson and Tommy Edman, were traded at the deadline.
Victor Scott II’s promotion from Memphis will combine with efforts from Lars Nootbaar and Tommy Pham to cover center. Scott made a stellar diving play in center on Monday which showcased the best of his defensive abilities, and progress made at the plate over the last month for Triple-A Memphis suggests that he could offer competitive at bats as well. Pham has been a revelation since his re-acquisition, and he’s been an invaluable depth addition at a time when the Cardinals are being particularly tested at the plate and in the outfield.
Scott doesn’t need to light the world on fire at the plate, but he does need to be competitive. That would be an improvement over his early season at bats, but in a position of need, there’s very little by way of an alternative.
Pallante, too, will hold firmly to his spot until Lance Lynn returns from knee soreness, which the team hopes will be before the end of the month. Monday’s clunker was his worst in more than a month, and he has by and large done an adequate job of holding that spot since earning it at the end of May. Deadline acquisition Erick Fedde had a tough debut on Friday in Chicago, but that will almost certainly stabilize.
Lynn’s return will provide depth and certainty. The Cardinals need Pallante to be able to tread water until that return arrives, which he has proven more than capable of doing.
The well-tread struggles against lefty pitching should be eased in part by Pham, but Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt simply must produce down the stretch if that rut is to be escaped. Neither has been even a league average hitter by OPS+ this season, and any hope that they might approach career norms has long since gone by the wayside.
If, however, they do have two strong months with the bat still within their grasp, there is no time like the present to put that strength on display.
A season which started with a spiral toward the bottom of the standings and was followed by a dramatic pull up is now on the precipice. A break in a positive direction could return the passion and excitement which has been missing from Busch Stadium all summer and put the franchise back on the path which it collectively seems to feel belongs to the Cardinals by birthright.
If it breaks bad, though, the winter will start early, the fingers will be pointed, and what was bleak will become worse. That’s not a future anyone around the Cardinals is eager to pursue, so it’s incumbent upon them to hit their way out of it.