As season winds down, Cardinals begin to weigh the value of their pending free agents

Wins in the first two games of this week’s series in Colorado took the remaining suspense out of the dwindling days of the St. Louis Cardinals’ 2024 season. Reaching 81 victories means that they will not finish with a losing record in back-to-back full seasons for the first time since the late 1950s, instead firmly cementing themselves in the middle of the record pack.

What’s left, then, is a turn toward the offseason. While definitive staffing announcements are expected as early as Monday, the free agent process will be left to play out on its regular pace. The Cardinals constructed a roster entering this season which would in theory provide them an opportunity to transition to a rapid rebuild, though the players they might lose in free agency could point that direction regardless of the preferred outcome or who is placed in charge of its determination.

Paul Goldschmidt’s potential departure tops that list. Despite a below average season at the plate and concerning long-term trends, Goldschmidt remains a fixture of the infield defense. The struggles the Cardinals had at that position before his arrival – José Martínez was high effort, low results – highlight the importance of stability at first, and missing out on that could well send ripples throughout the team’s defensive metrics.

Whether Goldschmidt is likely to re-sign is perhaps the biggest mystery of the winter. He remained stereotypically tight-lipped on the subject during his last homestand, offering only that he’d loved his time in St. Louis but didn’t see a lot of upside for either himself or the team if he commented on whether he preferred to return.

Matt Carpenter, the only other pending position player free agent, seems unlikely to return, but could be revisited late in winter if another opportunity does not open up elsewhere.

Andrew Kittredge was much less circumspect than Goldschmidt. Acquired in January in a trade for outfielder Richie Palacios, Kittredge was immediately thrust into high-leverage outings in the bullpen and responded by setting a team record for holds in a season. He enters the season’s final weekend with an earned run average below three and a desire to return to a clubhouse in which he was quickly embraced.

“I’ve loved my time here,” Kittredge said. “I don’t have anything negative to say about any player in this clubhouse. Everyone comes to play every day, and I like to be a part of teams like that, so I would definitely be interested in coming back here. We’ll just see how it goes.”

The issue for Kittredge is the same issue that greets relievers in their 30s throughout baseball. His performance has been of high enough quality to justify an uptick in his $2.26 million salary and in theory with years of security, but the variance of bullpen performances year over year – and the low-cost hope that comes attached to younger relievers – gives teams an incentive to go cheap in the bullpen.

Starting pitching, however, requires an investment, and the Cardinals will have to sort through the dollars they have committed before making decisions on veterans under team control. Sonny Gray is under contract for two more seasons, and Erick Fedde is under contract for one more. Fedde cracked that he would “obviously [have to] survive Winter Meetings and things like that” before describing his excitement for next season, but he remains an obvious candidate to return.

So too does Andre Pallante, who has pitched his way into performing as the top St. Louis starter since the beginning of July. He will return with a degree of earned incumbency, filling out slots in a hurry.

Steven Matz and Miles Mikolas are both under contract for one more season, and both have sufficient price tags attached as to be difficult to move. The Cardinals will likely work to ship out one or both, though absorbing dead money just to clear a roster spot would be seemingly unlike them at this point in the competitive cycle.

That leaves Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn, both of whom have team options for next season with $1 million options attached (as does reliever Keynan Middleton, recovering from a year lost to arm surgery). Lynn’s ailing right knee could require a lengthy rehab which might preclude him from pitching next season at all, and all indications are that the Cardinals are prepared to move on regardless of his health.

Gibson, though, has been adored in the clubhouse and by the team’s coaching staff. His seamless fit has been a real boost to what had become a lagging team culture, and his on-field results have more than justified the price tag paid to keep him.

Indeed, it seems that part of the motivation to move on from Matz or Mikolas would be to firm up an open spot for Gibson. If his option is not picked up by the team, it might signal a coming cut in payroll that opens the Cardinals up to several more difficult questions.