Looking back at 5 bold predictions for the Cardinals’ 2024 season. How did we do?
One way to gauge personal success in the accuracy around covering a team is the ability to immediately explain surprises.
Someone around the St. Louis Cardinals nearly every day may not be able to predict every move before they happen, but should at least come up with an immediate understanding of why something happens when it does.
It’s that reflexiveness that spurs the need to predict. It’s the logical conclusion, after all; if something is clear after the fact, shouldn’t it have been able to be seen coming down the pipe?
Having made five bold predictions for how 2024 would unfold for the Cardinals, it’s now fair to examine whether those predictions came true. Some were dead on, some were off in predictable ways, and some were hysterically misguided.
Prediction One
Masyn Winn follows in Jordan Walker’s footsteps by breaking camp with the Cardinals but returning once to Memphis.
Verdict: False, but…
Despite fighting through various aches and pains, Winn immediately established himself as an everyday shortstop in the big leagues and one of the premier defenders at a premium defensive position. The Cardinals always expected that he would flash with the glove; the question was whether the bat would follow.
It followed with authority, as Winn slugged 32 doubles, led the team with five triples, and added 15 home runs. He hit leadoff for the last two thirds of the season, and perhaps more than any other player is now cemented as the team’s most visible face.
The player who followed in Walker’s footsteps was, well, Walker, who spent the majority of the season in the minors after stumbling out of the gate. With the Cardinals pointed at a reset in 2025, he’ll seemingly have all of the available runway to help determine whether he can be counted on as part of the future in the same way as Winn.
Prediction Two
Either Brendan Donovan or Tommy Edman is traded by the end of the calendar year.
Verdict: True
This was perhaps the easiest prediction to make of the original five. The Cardinals have historically been predictable in terms of how they manage the arbitration clock, and Edman’s looming free agency and a squeeze behind him on the depth chart made him an obvious candidate for a trade. He was shipped to the Los Angeles Dodgers at the deadline in a deal which returned starter Erick Fedde from the Chicago White Sox.
Donovan, arbitration eligible for the first time this winter, will hit the same fork in the road midway through the 2026 season. Thomas Saggese’s ascendance looms as a nearly identical pressure point.
Prediction Three
Lars Nootbaar will appear on NL MVP ballots.
Verdict: Almost certainly false
Results won’t be released until the conclusion of the postseason, but it’s safe to say that if Nootbaar appears on any, someone will have made a data entry error. This past season was another where Nootbaar’s rate statistics show a player clearly ascending and who would be a force over a full season if ever he was able to spend a full season on the field.
Still, he finished the year with a .758 OPS (trailing only Willson Contreras, Iván Herrera and Brendan Donovan) and a 111 OPS+. He also finished with a mere 405 plate appearances, at least 200 fewer than would account for a full season.
The Cardinals will enter 2025 again patiently prepared for Nootbaar to break out. Whether he does – whether he can stay on the field – will go a long way toward determining whether he’s in St. Louis in 2026 and beyond, as he is also first-time arbitration eligible this winter.
Prediction Four
Paul Goldschmidt signs a two-year extension with a vesting option for a third year.
Verdict: False, pending a huge change in positioning
Goldschmidt’s career-worst 2024 season is well documented, and over last winter, both he and the team took the position that they would see how things unfolded before making a decision regarding his future in St. Louis. That decision was made for them.
Despite leading the team in home runs – a measly 22 – he struggled to keep his on-base percentage over .300 and was at times dropped to seventh in the batting order. He fought all season to make adjustments that would allow him to remain competitive, and he did not.
Even if the Cardinals didn’t plan to reset the roster next season, moving on from Goldschmidt at age 37 following the worst year of his career would be the logical decision. Now, it’s all but a formality. His drop off was substantial enough that the Cardinals are likely not in a position to even tender him a qualifying offer this winter; he would surely accept a one-year pact for a hair over $21 million.
Prediction Five
Yadier Molina will manage the Cardinals for at least one game.
Verdict: False
There’s no evidence that Yadier Molina even watched the Cardinals for one game in 2024, let alone managed to get himself to the ballpark and put on a uniform.
