MLB’s offseason begins Monday. What three Cardinals are most likely to be traded?
Now that the baseball preamble is over, the thrills of the hot stove league can get underway.
The Los Angeles Dodgers Game 5 comeback win boosted them to a World Series championship and also officially lit the pilot light on baseball’s transaction season. Decisions regarding team options are due Monday and the St. Louis Cardinals then will officially decline the options for Lance Lynn and Keynan Middleton and also reveal their decision regarding Kyle Gibson.
Next week is also the general managers’ meetings in San Antonio, and it’s at that gathering where much of the negotiating and trade conversation which will define the winter gets underway. The Cardinals have made no secret of their desire to shed salary, and three veteran stars with control over potential trade destinations will be at the center of those conversations.
Each of Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray will have the opportunity to be shopped and shipped if they desire it. Each has also been available to other clubs relatively recently, and from that there is an ability to look at the broader contours of those markets before the Cardinals have a true sense of their trade reality.
Nolan Arenado
With $74 million owed in salary (minus some deferments that teams must escrow) over the next three years but $10 million of that being paid by the Colorado Rockies, Arenado comes with a large price tag but not an unmanageable one.
His offense dropped precipitously in 2024 but he rebounded from a disappointing 2023 to post an elite defensive season, and in a winning environment with the support of strong clubhouse leaders, he could very well fulfill his end of the value proposition around his deal.
Like Contreras and Gray, Arenado’s no-trade clause puts him at the center of the conversation. When the Cardinals acquired him prior to the 2021 season, he engineered the deal in large part because he had only one (realistic) desired destination. Should the same dynamic emerge this winter, the Cardinals may find themselves accepting a depleted talent return in the name of cost savings.
The west coast is home for Arenado, and the Dodgers front office not-so-subtly leaked their interest in him in the midst of the miserable 2023 season. That was at a time before they acquired and committed to Shohei Ohtani as their designated hitter, creating some roster complications should Arenado eat into Max Muncy’s playing time at third. Still, Muncy has only one more year after next season left on his deal, and the Dodgers could see upgrade potential.
The Philadelphia Phillies, as yet unable to get over the hump, are also worth highlighting. Frustrations with homegrown third baseman Alec Bohm could see him on the way out this winter, though with only two more years of team control, it’s not clear whether he would fit the Cardinals’ competitive window. Arenado’s connection to several Phillies stars through
Team USA in the World Baseball Classic make them an obvious fit, and there’s no front office executive more aggressive on a yearly basis than Dave Dombrowski.
Willson Contreras
How much is Contreras committed to remaining behind the plate, and how important is that to him when he considers his future? His defense has improved significantly over his two seasons in St. Louis and he was on pace for the best offensive season of his career in 2024 before being derailed by two freak broken bone incidents. He’s a legitimate middle of the order hitter who can handle one of the most difficult positions on the field. There will be interest, should he entertain it.
The Houston Astros pursued Contreras at the trade deadline in 2022 before then-manager Dusty Baker stepped in, and they were also engaged with him in free agency following that season. Yainer Díaz did post similar offensive results to Contreras in 2024, and he still comes with a league minimum deal as opposed to the guaranteed $59.5 million still coming to Contreras over the next three years.
If the pool expands to teams who view him as a potential DH or even first baseman, additional options will open up. There’s no denying his ability to hit or his desire to win, but defining his potential landing spots will be one of the most intriguing part of the offseason’s opening weeks.
Sonny Gray
Fishing on former teammate Kyle Farmer’s land in Georgia, Gray was prepared to sign elsewhere last winter when his phone rang and John Mozeliak was on the line. That heavily backloaded contract is worth $65 million guaranteed (again, minus some deferments) over the next two years, and it may be the most complicated of the bunch to move.
The enigmatic Gray is a week from turning 35 and ended the season on the injured list with elbow tendonitis, though all involved have consistently downplayed the ailment and the Cardinals have said he’s on a normal offseason schedule. He did post the second-best strikeouts per nine number of his career in 2024 along with his best walks per nine total, and would no doubt pitch as a top end starter for a team acquiring him.
Gray, though, put a premium last winter on free agent destinations close to his home near Nashville. It’s believed that the team with whom he was close to signing was the Cincinnati Reds, and the Reds are likely to be loath to trade long term talent inside the division that may haunt them for years to come.
Atlanta is perhaps the most logical destination with Max Fried perhaps set to leave in free agency, though whether they see value in an outside addition among their impressive stock of homegrown pitching talent remains to be seen.