Here’s why the Cardinals may, or may not trade closer Ryan Helsley

There’s natural frustration which comes to a fan base when a player reaches his career peak, is something close to the best case scenario for reasonable projects, and immediately is discussed as a trade piece.

St. Louis Cardinals closer Ryan Helsley turned 30 in July, led the big leagues in saves, and is certain to receive votes in the Cy Young balloting for the second time in the last three years.

There is also a reasonable likelihood the Cardinals trade him this winter, and understanding that thought process requires being open to understanding some of the ways in which teams use cold, hard valuations to make those roster decisions.

Helsley will reach free agency after the 2025 season, leaving him with only one year remaining of team control. As a result, whichever team has him under contract – for now, the Cardinals – is presented with the need to weigh out how much he can benefit their success for the coming season and whether that outpaces the potential future value of players they could receive in a trade.

This is perhaps the first inflection point of decision making for a team. Even if the Cardinals don’t believe they’re likely to contend for a World Series this coming season, signing Helsley to a contract extension could keep him in the fold for an additional five years, or thereabouts. He’s young enough that he could still be the closer for the next championship quality team.

Relief pitchers, though, are historically vulnerable to having down seasons, especially as they age. In many cases, if a reliever could be counted on year in, year out to remain healthy and effective, that pitcher might still be used as a starter. Volatility comes with the bullpen almost by its nature, and as a result, many teams are reluctant to pour a great deal of money into relievers.

At the same time, though, the top end of the relief market is turning out big contracts for the game’s elite closers. The New York Mets signed Edwin Díaz to a five-year, $102 million contract after the 2022 season when Díaz was just 28. The Houston Astros gave Josh Hader a five-year, $95 million deal in January; Hader was entering the season in which he turned 30, and the team which signs Helsley will start the contract with the year he turns 31.

Helsley could rightfully push for a contract in that neighborhood in free agency given his track record and abilities. The Cardinals, having been bitten by seemingly every free agent reliever contract they’ve signed in the last decade, are likely to be reluctant to play at those stakes.

That, however, represents the thinking of the outgoing regime. The decision around Helsley is one being made with incoming president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom fully looped in. And Bloom, following 2022, was running baseball operations for the Boston Red Sox and the face of a two-year, $36 million contract for closer Kenley Jansen, who was 35 when he put pen to paper.

Bloom’s execution of that deal in the context of the notoriously miserly Red Sox ownership suggests it was a strategy he believed in at the time. Jansen is likely to make the Baseball Hall of Fame in retirement. Perhaps the prevailing view of the incoming Cardinals decision makers is that the relief market is volatile but its top end is reliable.

If the decision comes down to trade Helsley, it will be because ultimately the value proposition tipped into the future. That seems to be the path the Cardinals are still most likely to take, but there remains discussion around whether the right time to execute that trade is this winter or in the run up to the trade deadline.

Waiting carries risk. Pitchers are always vulnerable to injury any time they touch the ball, and Helsley managed only 36 ⅔ innings in 2023 while handling arm troubles. The best predictor of future injury is past injury, and his medical history is somewhat spotty.

There’s also the possibility that the Cardinals, invigorated by youth, play themselves into a position where it’s difficult to justify disassembling the roster. This is the sort of problem that most teams would love to have, but on a core level, teams who are interested in resetting ought not let valuable free agents walk to the market.

A winter trade comes with the challenge of drumming up a market. Near the deadline, contenders will have specific needs, and a few teams could drive prices north. In the winter, teams may be more inclined to believe in their options in house. Obvious destinations – hello, Baltimore – will persist, but others could be few and far between.

Whatever the path that develops, there should be confidence in knowing both the present and future stewards of the roster understand the challenges of each. A homegrown star reaching this point in his career has long been a frustration throughout baseball; dressing it up in modern front office speak doesn’t really change the feeling. It is not, however, without its reasons, and it’s equally important to give those the air and understanding they deserve.

This story was originally published November 15, 2024 at 5:00 AM.