If not Nolan Arenado, who will play third base for the St. Louis Cardinals?
When the St. Louis Cardinals succeeded in acquiring Nolan Arenado from the Colorado Rockies in early February of 2021, it marked the culmination of a years-long, behind-the-scenes effort that was designed to bring a next-generation Hall of Fame player to St. Louis in pursuit of a championship.
Now, not quite four years later, the resetting Cardinals seem more likely than not to find a path for Arenado out of town, and in doing so, would close the book on one of the more disappointing chapters in team history.
With three years and a hair less than $75 million remaining on his contract (not including money owed by the Rockies and some deferments), Arenado’s remaining tab is substantial but not prohibitive. The winter should bring multiple suitors, and the Cardinals should be in a position to present Arenado with multiple potential trades which he will be willing to accept.
Third base, then, presents itself as a position of opportunity.
Top prospect JJ Wetherholt played exclusively at shortstop for Low-A Palm Beach after the draft, but is unlikely to dislodge Masyn Winn’s glove as he climbs rapidly towards the majors. Either third or second seem to be his most likely eventual destinations, but Wetherholt is unlikely to factor into decisions for the 2025 club.
The short term options remain abundant, and the three most obvious are all familiar to Cardinals fans.
Brendan Donovan
Brendan Donovan rebounded from a 2023 elbow surgery to put up a strong season in 2024, acting primarily as the team’s left fielder with cameos at second base. Donovan’s .759 OPS and 14 home runs amounted to a 112 OPS+, making him one of the team’s only above-league-average hitters. In an attempt to protect that elbow, the Cardinals attempted to minimize his positional shuffling in 2024, and he started only five games at third base.
In his big league career, he has just 29 starts there compared to 111 at second, where he is likely a somewhat stronger defender. The gap between the two spots is not particularly wide, however, and Donovan’s growth in left field over the course of last season was a demonstration of his ability to improve quickly once dialed in to a specific task. If handed the job at third, it’s certain that he’ll pour all of his effort into improving there as well.
Still, Donovan’s fit will be in part determined by how the Cardinals view the future for Nolan Gorman.
Nolan Gorman
After hitting 27 homers in 2023, Gorman’s strikeout rate ballooned past the point of playability in 2024, and he finished the season in the minors. His pure power is rivaled by less than a handful of other players in the St. Louis system, but if the bat doesn’t find the ball, it’s difficult to find him a spot in the lineup.
Last winter’s reworking of defensive positioning improved the aggregate team defense but sent Gorman in particular into a crater at second base. Balls to his right bedeviled him all season and worked against his somewhat limited range, despite a very strong arm. Drafted in 2018, Gorman had been exclusively a third baseman in the minors before the Cardinals acquired Arenado originally, transitioning to second with the help of former Boston Red Sox great Dustin Pedroia.
Gorman has just 12 big league starts at third and none last season, where he appeared there only twice for a total of three innings. He split time at second and designated hitter for Memphis after his demotion, so if the Cardinals want to find space for him at third next season, it will be after a decent amount of time away from the spot.
Thomas Saggese
Thomas Saggese, who made his big league debut in September, will have an opportunity to earn a permanent spot in the majors, but that is not yet guaranteed. His offense showed some of the expected sticker shock at the jump from the minors, but he finished his year by beating up on far inferior pitching in the Arizona Fall League.
Like Donovan, he’s considered competent at each of second, third and short, though also like Donovan, his work at short lags behind the other two spots. He received eight starts at second, three at short and two at third after his recall, making one error at each spot.
Of the three, Saggese is also likely the best defender at second, though Donovan’s steadiness and Gorman’s arm strength are both important variables.
Alec Bohm
There remains the possibility that next year’s primary Cardinals third baseman isn’t yet a part of the organization.
While it’s unlikely that the Cardinals will pursue a starting caliber free agent position player, a trade of Arenado could well involve the return of big league roster players, either to create room for a potential match or because they represent a desired talent.
The Philadelphia Phillies, for instance, have long been rumored to be dissatisfied with the play of Alec Bohm, who managed 97 RBI hitting behind the meat of the vaunted Philadelphia lineup and made his first All-Star game. Bohm, though, has historically been a very poor defender at third, though he did improve markedly last year.
With two years of team control remaining, a change of scenery for Bohm could allow him to develop a comfortable new home while simultaneously opening a spot for Arenado with the Phillies.
Bohm also could cost in the neighborhood of $20 million over his two remaining years of salary arbitration; that would represent a significant savings for the Cardinals but also would allow the Phillies to shed some cash as they take on Arenado’s sizable deal.
