With Contreras on first, can the Cardinals’ catchers improve defensively in 2025?
In deciding to move Willson Contreras to first base from behind the plate for the 2025 season and moving forward, the St. Louis Cardinals haven’t only made a decision that reshapes their defense.
They’ve also made a decision that significantly alters the approach of their pitching staff, though they’ve done so with half of a big league season as a sample size to measure that change’s efficacy.
Iván Herrera and Pedro Pagés are set to split time behind the plate next season, begging the question of whether that combination will stand up defensively over the course of a full season.
Contreras has never been considered one of the league’s premiere defenders, but he has improved markedly even since arriving in St. Louis. Indeed, his injuries last season resulted in a roughly equal three-way division of labor behind the plate, and in most areas, the three catchers were relatively closely bunched up.
All three, for instance, recorded three blocked pitches above average and were responsible for one catcher blocking run apiece, according to MLB’s Baseball Savant. Contreras had the fewest blocking attempts of the trio with 1,840 and Herrera the most with 2,138, creating a fairly narrow band of variance. That left the three tied for 18th among qualified catchers, with Danny Jansen leading the way with 14 blocks above average for Boston and Toronto. Many of the catchers ahead of them had significantly more opportunities, and their work there was admirable.
Pitch framing data demonstrates some of the defensive advantage the Cardinals hope to gain with their decision, as both Herrera and Pagés were responsible for one positive framing run each while Contreras landed at a -2. Those totals are generated by applying pitch location data to eight distinct “shadow zones” around the designated strike zone and identifying which catchers were best able to snag strikes in those areas.
Herrera was able to convert 47.5% of pitches in those areas to strikes, nearly two points better than Pagés and more than three points better than Contreras. That rate for Herrera places him 19th best among 58 qualified catchers, or roughly in the top third. Contreras was 46th among 58, or roughly in the bottom 20%. Pagés landed 33rd, just on the downside of the middle of the pack.
The rub, of course, comes in measuring throwing. Herrera clearly struggled at controlling the running game, allowing 55 steals while catching just four runners stealing. The league averaged a 20.3% caught stealing rate in 2024, leaving Herrera’s 6.8% as clearly deficient.
His issue does not appear to be in his footwork or transfer. All three catchers were a hair better than the league average of two seconds for pop time; Pagés was best at 1.93 seconds and Herrera the worst at 1.99, but the discrepancy leaves an awfully fine hair to split. Throwing speed, though, was a wide delta.
Contreras’s arm speed was clocked by MLB – using the average of so-called max effort throws in a player’s 90th percentile or higher – at 86.3 miles per hour. Pagés came in at 85. Herrera, by contrast, measured at a mere 81 MPH. That was an improvement over the total of 79 that he put up in limited playing time in 2023, but it’s a clear drop off.
The top catcher in baseball by caught stealing above average was Will Smith of the Los Angeles Dodgers, who recorded 11. By contrast, Contreras was the only Cardinals catcher to post a positive total, with just one. Pagés was a -3 and Herrera a -4; that leaves them tied for 49th and 55th among qualified catchers, clearly a real concern.
Throughout the season, when asked about Herrera’s arm strength, manager Oli Marmol spoke in generalities about work he was doing to strengthen his arm and improve his exchanges. Herrera, late in the year, spoke of some low grade physical discomfort, but there was no suggestion that he was truly hampered by an injury. Indeed, his small uptick in throw velocity year over year doesn’t indicate a physically compromised player, but instead one with a known deficiency in his game that the team is attempting to cover.
There are, of course, tactics which a pitching staff can use to assist a catcher with the running game. The introduction of the pitch clock and limitations on rubber disengagements have impacted some of the rhythm changes that veteran pitchers might have used in years past, but Marmol also said on more than one occasion that his pitching staff was not at fault for the opposing stolen base rates.
This, ultimately, is the tradeoff for the Cardinals. They are likely to be more vulnerable to the stolen base than average at the same time that stolen bases are re-entering the mainstream strategic milieu.
The upside, by their calculation, is the gain in runs that comes from Contreras staying healthy and available throughout the year. Keeping him in the lineup for all or nearly all of their games should, by their thinking, outpace the losses they endure 90 feet at a time.
It’s to Herrera and Pagés to cash in on that belief and validate that decision. Otherwise, it’s possible that all moving Contreras to first base will accomplish is upping the quality of friendly conversation for baserunners before their speed their way to the middle of the diamond.
